Verification Request

MissoesRicRose
MissoesRicRose Posts: 258 Mover and Shaker
in MPQ General Discussion
I pulled 20 times on "Carol" and there was no 5 *.

I even thought about being some kind of bug. Do not think possible, pull 20 times and not come at least 1 5 * character. Or it really is some mistake or the difficulty to get Carol5 is extremely difficult. Which makes us more and more upset. With the addition of too many 4 * characters, there is no easy way to pull a 5 *. The game will become increasingly frustrating!
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Comments

  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    I've gone on multiple 0/40 streaks.
    0/20 is nothing.
  • MissoesRicRose
    MissoesRicRose Posts: 258 Mover and Shaker
    Bowgentle said:
    I've gone on multiple 0/40 streaks.
    0/20 is nothing.
    The difficulty can not be that high. With more characters entering 4 *. It is virtually impossible, if you can get a 5 *
  • Phumade
    Phumade Posts: 2,649 Chairperson of the Boards
    MissoesRicRose said:
    Bowgentle said:
    I've gone on multiple 0/40 streaks.
    0/20 is nothing.
    The difficulty can not be that high. With more characters entering 4 *. It is virtually impossible, if you can get a 5 *
    the number of 4* has no bearing on how many 5* you get.

    There could be as few as 1 4* in the pool and you would still see 85% 4* on LL or classic pulls.   BY definition 85% of any LL or classic pull will be a 4*.  Once the computer decides if its a 4* or 5* then it matters what 4* are actually in the pool.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited March 2019
    1:7 odds generally works for large sample size (1000 pulls at least?) I had a run of 0/38 LT pulls. I got 3 5* for my next 10 pulls. I'm not saying this will turn out the same way for you. This is the nature of odds.

    Think about this: the odds of getting a head or tail is 1:2. If you flip a coin 10 times, it doesn't mean that the result will always be 5 heads and 5 tails. There's a possibility that you get 8 heads and 2 tails. It doesn't mean the odds are wrong. It means you will get closer to 1:2 if you have a large sample size.
  • MissoesRicRose
    MissoesRicRose Posts: 258 Mover and Shaker
    OJSP said:
    You've been asking the same question since September 2017. What makes you think you'll get a different answer from the players? There is currently a player in another thread who's opened 35 tokens without getting a 5* from the same store, so your 20 is not exceptional.

    If you want to ask the developers about your pull statistics to see whether there's any problem with your numbers, send a ticket to Customer Support.

    As far as I know, the developers have never answered any questions about token pull results in the forum. Otherwise, you'll just get answers from other players telling you to keep opening tokens and record your own results to confirm if the percentage is lower than expected.
    In fact, there is no probability, the game is already pre-programmed to give you a certain character. If it were not so, the game would not give you the same characters after a backup.
  • KC_Hammer
    KC_Hammer Posts: 84 Match Maker
    Got the new Carol on my 3rd pull
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 6,594 Chairperson of the Boards
    I have gone 0/46. There are players who have gone 0/77 and even 0/107. 

    0/20 is not a big deal, unfortunately.
  • fuzzy_cracks
    fuzzy_cracks Posts: 37 Just Dropped In
    edited March 2019
    There is no probability on the number of pulls to garuntee what your looking for. I don’t understand why people think there is. There’s not. You’re in complete denial if you think there is. The RNG will always garuntee that you will be pissesd off. That’s all it will do. And it thrives on your frustration. 😂😂😂
  • MissoesRicRose
    MissoesRicRose Posts: 258 Mover and Shaker
    I find it incredible, some players realize that it is incredibly difficult, beyond normal, and at the same time, they think that this is normal, without making any kind of questioning.
    Just make a backup and note that the game will give you the same characters already established by himself.
    Maybe nothing is changing because of the lack of questioning.
    I'm not wanting differential treatment for me.
    Just questioning the lack of randomness in the game.
  • MissoesRicRose
    MissoesRicRose Posts: 258 Mover and Shaker
    For everyone who has that average of 0/20 or even 0/100 and do not get frustrated and think it's normal.
    Congratulations!
  • Daredevil217
    Daredevil217 Posts: 4,088 Chairperson of the Boards
    I’ve never once seen a thread asking “is this normal??” Or “I need verification” and then you open it and see “I pulled 3 5* in a row!” Or I went 6 of 10!”

    But it happens. All the time. If you want copious examples of bad RNG I’m guessing the “worst moment of the day” thread is full of them (I haven’t read it in months). Conversely, there’s plenty of examples of great RNG in the “best moments” thread. This is especially true with small sample sizes (which 20 pulls is). 
  • Kishida
    Kishida Posts: 310 Mover and Shaker
    MissoesRicRose said:
    For everyone who has that average of 0/20 or even 0/100 and do not get frustrated and think it's normal.
    Congratulations!
    Knowing it can happen doesn't mean people aren't frustrated. They post about it because it is frustrating, but there's not much to do outside of waiting for pulls to change/attempting to build a vast hoard and brute force some positive outcome. As much as posters have complained about pull rates, there have been dev posts on why they don't plan to implement a streak-breaking mechanic.

    Also, I don't know how your roster looks, but getting to 5* land is not necessarily going to remedy your issue of the game becoming "increasingly frustrating."
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 6,594 Chairperson of the Boards
    Daredevil217 said:
    I’ve never once seen a thread asking “is this normal??” Or “I need verification” and then you open it and see “I pulled 3 5* in a row!” Or I went 6 of 10!”


    Good point. I pulled 3 Kingpins in a row from his store!

    And have pulled 3 Latest 5’s in a row, not too long ago. 
  • MissoesRicRose
    MissoesRicRose Posts: 258 Mover and Shaker
    At least they could upgrade the list of 4 * champions. Well, there is no other way to get there: Dr. Strange; Carol5; Archangel; Gambit; etc.
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 11,920 Chairperson of the Boards
    It could be worst. Like you had a little snooze on a Saturday and then you wake up and find out your wife is watching Gilmour Girls on Netflix for like the 7th time and you are all "Geez, why, wasn't like twice enough?!?! I actually quite hate Rory" and now you have to watch it too because, hey, you had the snooze.

    Or uhm, like no 5s in like 23 draws.

    Nothing to see here.
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 11,920 Chairperson of the Boards
    And...hey, keep trying and things can change! Now I get to watch Titans despite my whining! 

    Sorry Marvel...I won't make a habit...

  • hot4lopunny
    hot4lopunny Posts: 3 Just Dropped In
    MissoesRicRose said:
    I find it incredible, some players realize that it is incredibly difficult, beyond normal, and at the same time, they think that this is normal, without making any kind of questioning.
    Just make a backup and note that the game will give you the same characters already established by himself.
    Maybe nothing is changing because of the lack of questioning.
    I'm not wanting differential treatment for me.
    Just questioning the lack of randomness in the game.
    I think you're misunderstanding something here, the predetermined draws are not made by some goblin sitting in a dungeon trying to get you to pay more money, they are random. The reason you can make a back up and pull the same thing is to prevent people from gaming the system. every draw you make is determined the moment a store opens not when you pull the token, doesn't mean it's not random just means that you can't change what you'll draw in any way. Your lack of 5* wasn't a conspiracy or a magic curse cast on you, it's what we call "bad luck" pray to rngesus take a break from the game and come back in a month
  • helix72
    helix72 Posts: 1,013 Chairperson of the Boards
    Chance of going at least 0 for 20: 3.88%.

    Said another way, if 100 players pulled 20 tokens each, 4 of them would get zero 5* characters. Sorry you’re one of the 4.
  • Yepyep
    Yepyep Posts: 980 Critical Contributor
    edited March 2019
    helix72 said:
    Chance of going at least 0 for 20: 3.88%.

    Said another way, if 100 players pulled 20 tokens each, 4 of them would get zero 5* characters. Sorry you’re one of the 4.
    Assuming you are correct, what is the formula for doing this math? I know that each pull is 1/7, or .143, i.e. a hair over 14% chance of a 5* per pull. How do you stack these the way you did, so that you get to .0388 after 20 iterations?

    Oh, and EDITED to say thanks to those kind enough to answer!
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    The formula is this:

    Odds of drawing 4* from LT = 1 - (1/7) = 6/7 or 85%.

    Odds of drawing zero 5* out of 20 pulls in a row which is the same as drawing all 4* out of 20 pulls in a row = 0.85 ^ 20

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