TPF Alexis said: Ironically, 4/4/4 is the most common single 12-cover distribution.
Hadronic said: TPF Alexis said: Ironically, 4/4/4 is the most common single 12-cover distribution. This is false. It is actually the least common.4/4/4 0.065200 5/5/2 0.110088 5/2/5 0.110088 2/5/5 0.110088 5/4/3 0.100756 5/3/4 0.100756 4/5/3 0.100756 4/3/5 0.100756 3/5/4 0.100756 3/4/5 0.100756
Daredevil217 said: TPF Alexis said: Ironically, 4/4/4 is the most common single 12-cover distribution. The issue is we rarely get builds that are 100% based on RNG. It’s not uncommon for many of us to have uneven builds based on how prizes are distributed so we start off on uneven footing. My Emma is 0/3/2 for example. The only RNG being the cover from shield training. I think my only pure RNG character was Howard whom I did get a 4/4/4 build for before he was champed. I was ecstatic.
sambrookjm said: Hadronic said: TPF Alexis said: Ironically, 4/4/4 is the most common single 12-cover distribution. This is false. It is actually the least common.4/4/4 0.065200 5/5/2 0.110088 5/2/5 0.110088 2/5/5 0.110088 5/4/3 0.100756 5/3/4 0.100756 4/5/3 0.100756 4/3/5 0.100756 3/5/4 0.100756 3/4/5 0.100756 TPF Alexis is correct, assuming no saved covers. 4/4/4 is the single most common distribution with only 12 covers. With *only* 12 covers, 5/4/3 in *some* order is the most common distribution, occuring 31.2% of the time. This distribution includes 3/4/5, 3/5/4, 4/3/5, 4/5/3, 5/4/3, and 5/3/4.Your probabilities are (presumably, as I haven't done the math for that yet) taking into account 12-cover distributions with extra saved covers, which includes 6/5/2, 7/5/2, 8/5/2, 9/5/2...X/5/2 all in the 5/5/2 category.
jamesh said: sambrookjm said: Hadronic said: TPF Alexis said: Ironically, 4/4/4 is the most common single 12-cover distribution. This is false. It is actually the least common.4/4/4 0.065200 5/5/2 0.110088 5/2/5 0.110088 2/5/5 0.110088 5/4/3 0.100756 5/3/4 0.100756 4/5/3 0.100756 4/3/5 0.100756 3/5/4 0.100756 3/4/5 0.100756 TPF Alexis is correct, assuming no saved covers. 4/4/4 is the single most common distribution with only 12 covers. With *only* 12 covers, 5/4/3 in *some* order is the most common distribution, occuring 31.2% of the time. This distribution includes 3/4/5, 3/5/4, 4/3/5, 4/5/3, 5/4/3, and 5/3/4.Your probabilities are (presumably, as I haven't done the math for that yet) taking into account 12-cover distributions with extra saved covers, which includes 6/5/2, 7/5/2, 8/5/2, 9/5/2...X/5/2 all in the 5/5/2 category. If you're looking at the most common cover distributions for unfinished characters, why wouldn't you include those cases? If you're waiting to complete a character, then 5/4/3 is going to look identical to pulling more than five covers in the first colour. That was also true before saved covers.
TPF Alexis said:I would have sworn it came out slightly ahead. I may be mis-remembering from something else I worked out, tho. I regrettably don't have it saved, and I really don't feel like going over it again.
sambrookjm said: TPF Alexis said:I would have sworn it came out slightly ahead. I may be mis-remembering from something else I worked out, tho. I regrettably don't have it saved, and I really don't feel like going over it again. 4/4/4 does come out ahead, if you are taking only 12 covers and not counting saved ones. You aren't mis-remembering anything.
Historically, I remember G4mora and Ant-Man were at 4/4/4 before being champed. Right now, I have War Machine at 4/4/4. I may have had one or two more, but I doubt it if I'm not recollecting because it's usually pretty noteworthy to get a 4/4/4. I'm not going to argue with all the statisticians above me, but t feels like I always get a 5 somewhere before I'm at 13.
EDIT: I lied. I have 45 4* champs. Assuming Ant-Man and Gamora were my only two 4/4/4's before champing, that puts me at 2/45, or 4.44% of my 4*'s having been 4/4/4.
TPF Alexis said: sambrookjm said: TPF Alexis said:I would have sworn it came out slightly ahead. I may be mis-remembering from something else I worked out, tho. I regrettably don't have it saved, and I really don't feel like going over it again. 4/4/4 does come out ahead, if you are taking only 12 covers and not counting saved ones. You aren't mis-remembering anything. Just because there's a perspective from which my statement was correct doesn't mean I wasn't mis-remembering.