5 premium packs and only 1 mythic?

Aeroplane
Aeroplane Posts: 314 Mover and Shaker
in MtGPQ General Discussion
Is this the norm at 38% for a mythic? No point in buying packs as I seem to have better luck with the freebies.
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Comments

  • gogol666
    gogol666 Posts: 316 Mover and Shaker
    At 38% you should get 2 mythics every 2 premium packs. 1 on 5 is low, but not a very much so. However, you should evaluate the statistic when you have a larger number of samples: if you buy 100 packs, you should get about 38 mythics. If you get 40 or 35 is still statistically correct, but you shouldn't get 20 or 60.
    With 5 packs, it is hard to say anything
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    With the current published RIX drop rates, you could expect on average 2.4 mythics from every 5 PPs.  But because it's random, you can get any number from 0 up.

    If a big group of people all opened 5 RIX PPs and compared the number of mythics they each got, then the published drop rates would mean:
    • 8.6% of them would get none
    • 21.3% would get one (you're one of these people with slightly bad but not the worst luck)
    • 26.2% would get two
    • 21.3% would get 3
    • 12.9% would get 4
    • 6.2% would get 5
    • 2.5% would get 6
    • 0.8% would get 7
    And an ever-decreasing percentage would get even more.
  • Rhasget
    Rhasget Posts: 412 Mover and Shaker
    Volrak said:
    With the current published RIX drop rates, you could expect on average 2.4 mythics from every 5 PPs.  But because it's random, you can get any number from 0 up.

    If a big group of people all opened 5 RIX PPs and compared the number of mythics they each got, then the published drop rates would mean:
    • 8.6% of them would get none
    • 21.3% would get one (you're one of these people with slightly bad but not the worst luck)
    • 26.2% would get two
    • 21.3% would get 3
    • 12.9% would get 4
    • 6.2% would get 5
    • 2.5% would get 6
    • 0.8% would get 7
    And an ever-decreasing percentage would get even more.
    These stats always make me sad. I have had bad luck with RNG in this game for a long time. I'm one of those who have no mythics dropped from RIX (8 PPs and not buying anymore).
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Rhasget said:
    I'm one of those who have no mythics dropped from RIX (8 PPs and not buying anymore).
    Yes.. that's the problem with simple RNG.  People who find themselves on the unlucky end of the curve might start out with the same chances as everyone else, but that doesn't make their 0 mythics taste any better.  It's very much a feel-bad.

    One can imagine 100 new players opening 5 PPs, and some proportion of those 8.6% who get no mythics simply deciding not to continue with the game, because the best cards seem so hard to get.  IMO leaving it up to a simple RNG causes an avoidable loss of a small but significant portion of the potential player-base size, and hence revenue.

    Solutions which cut off that unlucky tail of the distribution are tried and tested in other games.  A good example is a pity timer (i.e. if you've opened some large number of packs with no mythic then the next pack will guarantee a mythic).
  • GrizzoMtGPQ
    GrizzoMtGPQ Posts: 776 Critical Contributor
    I opened 6 RIX PP and got zero Mythics. Everyone on our team is experiencing the same thing. I'm suspecting a bug or serious malfeasance.
  • DumasAG
    DumasAG Posts: 719 Critical Contributor
    GrizzoMtGPQ said:
    I opened 6 RIX PP and got zero Mythics. Everyone on our team is experiencing the same thing. I'm suspecting a bug or serious malfeasance.
    Opened a RIX PP a couple days ago and pulled a new mythic (Zetalpa) and 3 new rares (plus a dupe of one of those rares). Sky high drop rates for me, but I think it's proof that it's not a bug seeing as I opened a mythic.
  • GrizzoMtGPQ
    GrizzoMtGPQ Posts: 776 Critical Contributor
    @DumasAG it's not proof as you need to look at the overall trend/aggregate. Even OP @Aeroplane admitted to getting a Mythic. We're calling into question the published rate. When a lot of people open a lot of packs and don't get the published rate of Mythic accrual it casts doubt on whether their numbers are correct.
  • Skiglass6
    Skiglass6 Posts: 149 Tile Toppler
    RIX took me 12 PP before I got my 1st Mythic. I did get a second on the 13th. HOU it took me 15 PP to get my 1st mythic.  XLN I got my 1st mythic on 8PP. This is the reason I will never pay money for crystals. There was a suggestion at one time to create a pity timer. I might buy crystals if this was in place and I thought it was fair. But currently I only buy the overpriced Mythics when I feel I have played long enough that it is time to donate money to the game. Definitely not an impulse buy. 

    I am worried about the current flow of crystals and the possibility this will squeeze me out of this game. We have had quite a few PW’s drop really close. The new events are not running and a few other cases in decreases crystal rewards have depleted the over abundance I had built up during the transition. I am ok with this but the end of the rare reward and almost all rewards being XLN packs, the next set will come out and I will have no way to purchase the new set and not much of RIX to show for all of those resources. 

  • span_argoman
    span_argoman Posts: 751 Critical Contributor
    GrizzoMtGPQ said:
    @DumasAG it's not proof as you need to look at the overall trend/aggregate. Even OP @Aeroplane admitted to getting a Mythic. We're calling into question the published rate. When a lot of people open a lot of packs and don't get the published rate of Mythic accrual it casts doubt on whether their numbers are correct.
    And yet when @Volrak or myself suggest to people who are insistent on this claim to help shed light on this situation by getting their coalition members or various coalitions to all record the drop information for packs opened say within the first week of a new set's release, no one takes up that offer.

    It's easy to claim this and that based on our personal experiences or that of people we know. It takes actual effort to back up those claims. How about if I say that my coalition members has been getting fabulous drop rates from RIX? There's no way to verify whether your claim or mine is more valid.

    To give people an idea of how little data the community has on drop rates, we have 55,807 drops recorded on Octal's spreadsheet. If we take away my contribution, it's 46,206 drops.

    That's roughly equivalent to 1,848 PPs of cards. Whoa, big number right? Nope.

    If 20 people in a coalition each opened an average of 5 PPs at the release of a new set, that's a 100 PPs. Take one of the mega coalitions with their 10 or so coalitions and that's 1,000 PPs opened.

    Now compare that with the fact that the spreadsheet has been available to contribute to for 1.5 years / shortly after the release of Kaladesh / 5 new set releases.

    So excuse me for being blunt on this (or mod me if it is inexcusable, fine) but if people would just stop whingeing and put in some effort to record their **** drops, we would have a much stronger case for or against all the various claims about drop rates.
  • span_argoman
    span_argoman Posts: 751 Critical Contributor
    Skiglass6 said:
    I am worried about the current flow of crystals and the possibility this will squeeze me out of this game. We have had quite a few PW’s drop really close. The new events are not running and a few other cases in decreases crystal rewards have depleted the over abundance I had built up during the transition. I am ok with this but the end of the rare reward and almost all rewards being XLN packs, the next set will come out and I will have no way to purchase the new set and not much of RIX to show for all of those resources. 

    Can you prove the decrease in Crystal rewards? I don't see it.
  • Aeroplane
    Aeroplane Posts: 314 Mover and Shaker
    Oh oh, the magic police are out. Most people are not into doing spread sheets for games on their device. Some people, just come on here to let off steam whether its bias or not ,like my topic here after a bad run of luck. Give people a break and don't give me a sermon reply. Just want enjoy the game, rant a bit and celebrate a good draw from a pack once in awhile.  "stop whingeing and put in some effort to record their tinykitty drops"   These type of comments push the casual player away.
  • Brigby
    Brigby ADMINISTRATORS Posts: 7,757 Site Admin
    *Please keep all comments civil and constructive. Thank you!
  • Mainloop25
    Mainloop25 Posts: 1,979 Chairperson of the Boards
    Aeroplane said:
    Oh oh, the magic police are out. Most people are not into doing spread sheets for games on their device. Some people, just come on here to let off steam whether its bias or not ,like my topic here after a bad run of luck. Give people a break and don't give me a sermon reply. Just want enjoy the game, rant a bit and celebrate a good draw from a pack once in awhile.  "stop whingeing and put in some effort to record their tinykitty drops"   These type of comments push the casual player away.

    You know that there is a whole thread dedicated to letting off steam, right? 
  • Skiglass6
    Skiglass6 Posts: 149 Tile Toppler
    span_argoman said:
    Skiglass6 said:
    I am worried about the current flow of crystals and the possibility this will squeeze me out of this game. We have had quite a few PW’s drop really close. The new events are not running and a few other cases in decreases crystal rewards have depleted the over abundance I had built up during the transition. I am ok with this but the end of the rare reward and almost all rewards being XLN packs, the next set will come out and I will have no way to purchase the new set and not much of RIX to show for all of those resources. 

    Can you prove the decrease in Crystal rewards? I don't see it.
    I hate to respond to this since I do not have the exact facts and do not want to be castrated for not being exact. We had a steady flow  of 2 coalition events every week that carried crystals as progression, personal placement, and coalition placement. There has been a least two weeks in a row that we have only had 1.  I was also thinking that the individual PVE event gave out more than 20 crystals, but feel free to correct me if I am wrong. 
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Aeroplane said:
    Oh oh, the magic police are out.
    I didn't think Span was trying to be the "police".  The point he seemed to take issue with is casting suspicion on what someone (in this case D3) has said without taking all the reasonable steps in your power to test the truth of what they said.  (This didn't seem to be a direct response to any of your comments.)  And yes, the community has a system in place which should make it easy for anyone who actually does care to contribute drop rates data and see the big picture.  If you don't care, you can ignore it.

    Aeroplane said:
    Most people are not into doing spread sheets for games on their device.  Some people, just come on here to let off steam
    AFAIK the community drop rates spreadsheet didn't come about because anyone was particularly into spreadsheets.  I think it started, and it continues, thanks to people who are into finding out the truth.

    And sorry if my interpretation of your original question as a request for an answer was wrong.  As Mainloop suggested, posting in the venting thread would be one way to hint that you're not actually seeking an answer.
  • Aeroplane
    Aeroplane Posts: 314 Mover and Shaker
    Mainloop and Volrak, my response was only to argoman being snarky with someone else responding to the topic. It had nothing to do with the original thread I started with. Volrak , your response with the percentages was actually perfect, helpful and to the point. Thanks.
  • Houdin
    Houdin Posts: 182 Tile Toppler
    I think I will record for volrak on dominaria.

    For ixalan right now I've opened 60 premium packs which by drip rate should have netted me 23.3 mythics.
    I have only pulled 15. That make the drop rate 25 % not 38% 

    60 packs is a decent sized pool for data.

    I do not belive that the published drop rates are correct. 
    is it intentional or just another bug in the game... who knows.
  • Bil
    Bil Posts: 831 Critical Contributor
    edited April 2018
    Houdin said:
    I think I will record for volrak on dominaria.

    For ixalan right now I've opened 60 premium packs which by drip rate should have netted me 23.3 mythics.
    I have only pulled 15. That make the drop rate 25 % not 38% 

    60 packs is a decent sized pool for data.

    I do not belive that the published drop rates are correct. 
    is it intentional or just another bug in the game... who knows.
    Do you mean Rivals of Ixalan? 
    If you really mean XLN you can't expect a 38% on a PP ... The rate is more likely about 13%.
  • Houdin
    Houdin Posts: 182 Tile Toppler
    no for rix. That quoted rate is just over 38%.
    For ixalan core it's 13 which is a hot steaming pile of tinykitty
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Houdin said:
    I think I will record for volrak on dominaria.

    For ixalan right now I've opened 60 premium packs which by drip rate should have netted me 23.3 mythics.
    I have only pulled 15.
    That would definitely be appreciated!

    Actually, if you opened 60 RIX PPs then in fact the published drop rates would mean an expected average of 29 total mythic drops, not 23.  (Just multiplying the chance per PP by number of PPs doesn't work, because there's also a chance of getting 2 or more mythics per PP which doesn't get accounted for.  29 comes from converting reported odds per pack into odds per card, and then multiplying that by number of cards.)

    I'm not sure whether you got 15 non-dupe mythics or 15 total mythic drops.  If total drops, it's really low (bottom 1% of luck based on published drop rates).  15 non-dupes would be kind of expected though since RIX has only 17 mythics in the set.

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