4 star draw rates and spending CP (someone check my math)

Tintaiwan
Tintaiwan Posts: 172 Tile Toppler
in MPQ General Discussion
I have been debating spend cp or save up 120 for a missing 13th cover.  

So what is more fun than a game, MATH.

Currently there are 60 characters in a token pull for 4 stars.  with 12 of those at x4 odds that makes for easy math.  48 pulls for old 48 pulls for new ones (12*4)  1/2 chance of a new

then if you pull a new one you have a one in twelve chance of getting the new character's cover you need.  and one in 48 of an old cover.   

So far the odds of getting a cover you want 1/2*1/12= 1/24 for new cover and 1/2 * 1/48= 1/96 for an old .

But that only would work if you don't have 5 already in the pulled color.  So then the odds get worse.  if only one is blocked then you have 2/3 chance for a usable pull.  if 2 of the colors are already at 5 covers, then 1/3 chance for a useful pull.  

So New is 1/24*2/3= 1/36 (2/72)  or 2.77% rate    at 1/3 open is 1/24*1/3  1/72  or 1.3% 

Old 1/96*2/3  = 1/144 (2/288) or .7% chance if only 1/3 open is 1/96 *1/3 =1/288 or .35% chance

So my tentative conclusion.  
Newer covers with 2 colors that would make you have 13/13 maybe worth the risk of not spending CP.  Because if you are getting 20CP on average a day you would get it in around a month.  

But fewer if only one cover would fit the bill then I am going to consider using CP to buy that last cover.   (If character is worth it too)

Old ones, if character is worth it.  I am buying the last cover no questions asked. Especially if I have a cover about to go to waste.  the odds are so long now of pulling the one you need that waiting will be a long long wait. 

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Comments

  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited April 2018
    Actually there are 62 4* now and 20 5* in Classics. My calculation was:

    1/ (12 * 4 + 50)= 1 / 98= 1.02% chance of pulling any 4* classic.

    4/98 = 4.08% chance of pulling latest. 

    With 5* in it, I don't know how to calculate it further.
  • talleman
    talleman Posts: 447 Mover and Shaker
    edited April 2018
    Got 4* Jean at 5/1/5 with a cover on the vine expire in 3 days.

    Should i:
    1. Buy 2 covers for 240 CP

    2. Buy 1 cover for 120 CP and hope for a HfH deal

    3. Buy some Classic LTs and hope for the best

    4. Let the cover on the vine rot and focus on other 4*s

    5. Get 50 Beast covers and get a blue cover from champ rewards then buy the last cover with CP or HP if i get a HfH deal
  • NMANOZ
    NMANOZ Posts: 108 Tile Toppler
    If I got 12 covers for a character, I put them as my favourite. 

    If I get a cover I don't need (on a colour I already have 5 on), then I will spend the CP soon before the cover expires if I still haven't got the 13th cover by then.
  • NMANOZ
    NMANOZ Posts: 108 Tile Toppler
    talleman said:
    Got 4* Jean at 5/1/5 with a cover on the vine expire in 3 days.

    Should i:
    1. Buy 2 covers for 240 CP

    2. Buy 1 cover for 120 CP and hope for a HfH deal

    3. Buy some Classic LTs and hope for the best

    4. Let the cover on the vine rot and focus on other 4*s

    5. Get 50 Beast covers and get a blue cover from champ rewards then buy the last cover with CP or HP if i get a HfH deal
    Put her as your favourite and hope you get the cover you need in the next couple of days. Either way you will need to spend some CP because chances are you will end up with the same problem again. At least then, you can get a LT cover at the end of it.
  • Scofie
    Scofie GLOBAL_MODERATORS Posts: 1,715 Chairperson of the Boards
    According to the info it's a 1:7 ratio for 5* pulls. So you can reduce the percentage to 6/7 of the original post. 
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    Based on experiences of a few posters here, there's a good probability of H4H appearing if you have 12 covers AND you have cover(s) dying on the vine. If I were you, I would buy a cover and wait it out until 3 minutes before the cover disappear. 

    Again, it depends on

    1) how important JG is to you

    2) how many covers you might waste if you were to open 6-12 Classic Tokens.

    Assuming that you have all 4* rostered and none of the non-championed 4* have 5 covers in any 2 of the colours, then the probability of wastage is low. If that's the case, I would rather buy Classic Tokens if JG is not a priority in my game play.
  • CharlieCroker
    CharlieCroker Posts: 254 Mover and Shaker
    talleman said:
    Got 4* Jean at 5/1/5 with a cover on the vine expire in 3 days.

    Should i:
    1. Buy 2 covers for 240 CP

    2. Buy 1 cover for 120 CP and hope for a HfH deal

    3. Buy some Classic LTs and hope for the best

    4. Let the cover on the vine rot and focus on other 4*s

    5. Get 50 Beast covers and get a blue cover from champ rewards then buy the last cover with CP or HP if i get a HfH deal
    Without seeing your roster I can't see how important Jean will be for you, but my inclination would be to let the cover go.  Three reasons:

    1. Whilst Jean is still good, she's no longer the must have she was once.
    2. You already have 5 covers in her best powers so she's already viable for PVE.
    3. Those 120/240cp could potentially benefit your roster more in other ways.
  • talleman
    talleman Posts: 447 Mover and Shaker
    Thnx for the fast replys. I do have 24 4* champs and Jean is not a top 10 of those i do have champed but she is still a good character and i do want to have her champed eventually.
  • Scofie
    Scofie GLOBAL_MODERATORS Posts: 1,715 Chairperson of the Boards
     I'd favourite her and wait and see if the H4H materialises then, otherwise let her go and save the CP for next time.
  • Tintaiwan
    Tintaiwan Posts: 172 Tile Toppler
    Scofie said:
    According to the info it's a 1:7 ratio for 5* pulls. So you can reduce the percentage to 6/7 of the original post. 
    yep, you're right.  
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 6,692 Chairperson of the Boards
    Note that the ratio is not 1:7, but ~1:7, because it is actually 15% odds of a 5 from the Legendary stores, and 85% chance of a 4.  But you are correct in that the odds of pulling a specific Vintage 4 are very low now - about 0.85% from any one pull.  That’s approx 2300 CP to get a cover of each Vintage 4 (with even distribution) plus some 5’s and a bunch of Latest 4’s.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    Does it mean close to 3 million CP is needed to cover all 4* and 5*? 2300* 15 covers * 82 = 2.83 million.
  • Scofie
    Scofie GLOBAL_MODERATORS Posts: 1,715 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited April 2018
    HoundofShadow said:
    Does it mean close to 3 million CP is needed to cover all 4* and 5*? 2300* 15 covers * 82 = 2.83 million.
     That would be the case if you were trying to get them in a predetermined order and sold the ones that weren't the droids you're looking for...

    And assuming you've got bonus heroes set to someone else. 

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