Streaky Token Pulls

SystemSystem Posts: 816 Critical Contributor
This discussion was created from comments split from: Finally made it to 5* land...and it's horrible..

Comments

  • WumpushunterWumpushunter Posts: 627 Critical Contributor
    granne said:
    While I've recycled Torch more than any of my other 2*s. Random is random. The word for your example is anecdotal.
    Of course it's anecdotal, is my own personal experience but add in the hundreds of "vine" stories on the forum and it become a typical representation of the RNG.  My favorite was one guy having 13 covers for coulson and they were all the same color.
  • TPF AlexisTPF Alexis Posts: 3,771 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited June 2017
    And, btw, off topic, heroic and elite tokens are rigged. I opened a thread about getting only wolverine astonishing etc... and since then I got 4 more.
    Flip a coin 10 times. 1 in 2 chance of heads. It comes up heads 8 times. Coin is rigged?



    Too bad tokens don't have 2 options but dozens. So you example is meaningless. More like roll a 20 side dice a dozen times and it landing on 7 six times. And it is rigged both by color and by character. I have a two star farm I have never sold 2 star human torch, I sold 2 star storm twice over. Rigged or weighted their rng is not truly random.
    It's a simplification, but it does still hold true. The odds of that happening on any given run of pulls is miniscule, but when you've got a huge number of Players making a huge number of pulls, the odds that it will happen to someone on a fairly regular basis are actually pretty good.

    A better comparison would be rolling a d20 a couple of thousand times, and then seeing if there was a run of six of the same number anywhere in there. Make it a d100 if you want. With that many samples, the odds actually get pretty decent. And I'm just basing that on what I've probably pulled over the few months that I've been playing. Again, work that out over the number of Players in this game (many of whom have been playing for years and have made maybe hundreds of thousands of pulls each), and it gets downright likely. Every bell curve has its far ends.

    ***Edit - Consolidating by adding another post with this one from @TPF Alexis - Ducky***

    Oops. I didn't actually notice which specific Tokens they were talking about. The same principle applies to all Tokens. It's just as true of Legendaries, and I see people making the same gripes about Legendaries often enough.
  • JaedenkaalJaedenkaal Posts: 3,356 Chairperson of the Boards
    granne said:
    While I've recycled Torch more than any of my other 2*s. Random is random. The word for your example is anecdotal.
    Of course it's anecdotal, is my own personal experience but add in the hundreds of "vine" stories on the forum and it become a typical representation of the RNG.  My favorite was one guy having 13 covers for coulson and they were all the same color.
    Well that's just a selection bias (on top of a confirmation bias). Obviously no one is going to post on the forums about all the statistically average and expected outcomes they get, at least, certainly not in large enough numbers. So really the only complaints you get are from people who has stories about their unlikely pull sequences. And even they will totally fail to mention all the pulls they made that don't fit the pattern that they're complaining about.

    So yes, pull streaks happen, and no, they're not an indication that the system is rigged. You know those last 10 tokens you opened? Do you know the odds of you getting those exact 10 covers from those tokens? It's practically zero! But you still lucked into (whatever 10 covers those were).
  • jreddjredd Posts: 1,272 Chairperson of the Boards
    it'd be nice if there was some kind of tracking system for checks and balances to keep rngeesus honest. i hoard up elites to 50 and then pull them, my standards and heroics. usually heroics are in the neighbourhood of 15-20 or more. i'm in a current stretch where I've pulled 1 4* out of the last 7 times i've done this. even taking the low estimate of 15 pulls per time, that has me at 1 for 105. a wee bit worse than the 7% odds.
  • JaedenkaalJaedenkaal Posts: 3,356 Chairperson of the Boards
    Ah, yes. Enforced randomness. Just in case random isn’t random enough. (Or too random?)
Sign In or Register to comment.