Should I be happy?

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rafalele
rafalele Posts: 876 Critical Contributor
edited July 2017 in MtGPQ General Discussion
In my 400 points Amonkhet booster in ToZ, I have received a mythic Combat Celebrant.
Happy? No.
It is my fith copy of it, I have also 3 copies of Neheb and I only have 10 Amonkhet different mythics.
@Brigby the randomize algorithm is a little suspicious. Could you tell to developers? Thanks in advance.

Please do not tell me anything about booster crafting, it is another thing. Even with booster crafting working (in future) if they do not change the algorithm it will continue to be frustrating receiving so much copies of the same cards, worst, talking about mythic or rare.

Comments

  • Laeuftbeidir
    Laeuftbeidir Posts: 1,841 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Wow. That turned from good to bad to worse in a second. Everything is explainable with RNG, but this would be an extreme example of bad luck. I'd do the math, but normally @volrak steps in and does it way better :smiley:
    I have 8 amk mythics so far, no dupes. 76 AMK rares total, distributed on 26 different ones. Some cards with 5,6 or 7 copies. Not very lucky, but not particulary unlucky.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    @Laeuftbeidir successfully guessed my interest would be piqued by this one... I'm getting way too predictable. :P
    rafalele said:
    In my 400 points Amonkhet booster in ToZ, I have received a mythic Combat Celebrant.
    Happy? No.
    It is my fith copy of it, I have also 3 copies of Neheb and I only have 10 Amonkhet different mythics.
    @Brigby the randomize algorithm is a little suspicious. Could you tell to developers? Thanks in advance.
    @rafalele, I can't tell you whether you should be suspicious (or happy), but I can put numbers to your experience using simulation, assuming drops are indeed completely random.

    Let's call C the expected chance of having 10 or fewer unique AKH mythics, after reaching 5 copies of one of them.

    The value of C is complicated by the newly released AKH cards (which I'm calling "AKH+").  If you opened all your mythics pre-AKH+, then your experience would actually be expected (C = 72%).


    On the other hand, if all of your mythics were opened post-AKH+, then only about 1 in 40 people would share your experience (C = 2.3%).


    More realistically than either case above, if you opened half your mythics from AKH packs and half from AKH+, then 1 in 5 people (C = 20.5%) would have only 10 different mythics after hitting a 5x dupe.

    And if more than half your packs have been pre-AKH+, then C would increase to somewhere between 20% and 72%, depending just what proportion of your packs were pre-AKH+.  So it looks like it may be an example of moderately bad luck.

    Factors not accounted for include mythic purchases; if you've made some, these odds would drop.  Also, if you've acquired dupe mythics from repeated elite pack rerolls, then the expected odds would increase.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    Laeuftbeidir said:
    I have 8 amk mythics so far, no dupes. 76 AMK rares total, distributed on 26 different ones. Some cards with 5,6 or 7 copies. Not very lucky, but not particulary unlucky.
    Actually, assuming random drops, that's notably lucky on the mythics.  If all your mythics were pre-AKH+, the odds of all 8 being unique would be 1 in 38.  Even if all were opened from AKH+ packs, only 1 in 5 people would get no dupes from 8 mythics.

    Of course, if our brains were wired to assess probabilities accurately, and feel as much impact from good luck as from bad, you would now be pretty much obliged to come up with a theory that mythic drops are skewed to be more likely to give you non-dupes.  But for some reason, that never seems to happen...

  • Laeuftbeidir
    Laeuftbeidir Posts: 1,841 Chairperson of the Boards
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    @Volrak
    Well, I am fluent in statistics, but I learned my lesson here. If I want more precise predictions than I could come up with, I tag you :-P
    The lucky/unlucky part was regarding my rares; Actually, I am very lucky regarding mythic dupes indeed, and I am fully aware of that:
    32 different mythics total, and only one dupe. with a distribution over the sets that nearly are in-line with the amount of boosters I opened from each set (with a top drop rate in KLD/AER, followed by AMK, worst in Origins. Of course my data from the earlier sets is not that relevant since I began collecting the data only 1,2k cards before. Have you ever broken down the drop rates from the different sets to see if they change there? ). 4 of those might make the calculation more complicated; they are from elite packs.
    Latest set: 6 mythics were pre AMK+; 2 post AMK+; only one of those from an elite pack (so a guaranteed non-dupe).

  • Slypenslyde
    Slypenslyde Posts: 32 Just Dropped In
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    RNGsus is cruel. I've failed 50% chances 12 times in a row in games. I got so mad I wrote a program to prove to myself how rare it was. I was surprised to find out that it's not actually as rare as the % makes it sound when you consider a game with a few thousand players. A quote I heard once comes to mind:

    "On Amazon's servers, one-in-a-billion happens every seven seconds."

    RNG bias is very difficult to prove. It'd be more suspicious if everyone with the same phone had the same 6 duplicates of the same mythic, or some other pattern that seemed to cross user accounts. We want it to mean we can't get a stretch where we get the same cards, but truth is there's no law of nature that stops a fair coin toss from coming up heads 100 times in a row.

    Keep hacking at it! Either your luck will change or you'll have the biggest collection of Combat Celebrant in the game! ;)
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    Laeuftbeidir said:
    Have you ever broken down the drop rates from the different sets to see if they change there?
    There's been no significant difference in drop rates across sets.  (The "Analysis" tab of the drop rates spreadsheet has a breakdown by set towards the bottom of the sheet.)
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
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    I have a total of only 3 mythics and 21 rares(excluding guaranteeds) in this set, from 17 premium packs and 66 single packs. 

    Drop rates are definitely skewed! I've brought my pitchfork. 

    Volrak! Crunch those numbers! 
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Volrak said:
    Ohboy said:
    I have a total of only 3 mythics and 21 rares(excluding guaranteeds) in this set, from 17 premium packs and 66 single packs. 

    Drop rates are definitely skewed! I've brought my pitchfork.
    Well, given that the drop algorithm is hidden, there's no way to completely rule out any theory anyone might form about your drops!  For example, perhaps there's a special exception in the server code that checks for a blacklisted user ID and slashes their drop rates?  It can't be proven there's not...


    That's really all I read before I started lighting my burning torches. 
  • bk1234
    bk1234 Posts: 2,924 Chairperson of the Boards
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    I've pulled 3 Olivia, 2 Omnath and 2 Gisela. 

    I bought them all. 

    RNGesus is cruel.

    To answer your question, yes, yes should be happy -- very few have even managed to pull more than 10 AKH mythics -- duplicate or otherwise. 
  • DumasAG
    DumasAG Posts: 719 Critical Contributor
    edited July 2017
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    I actually feel that they may have done something to improve mythic drop rates. Opened 7 different AKH mythics and 2 masterpieces (vindicate, counterspell (vindicate so so good, counterspell so so bad)) from AKH packs plus one masterpiece pack (the one full of AKH mythics after we rotated out of KLD, received Oketra). Opened about half of packs pre-AKH+. I have zero dupes. I assume my experience probably places me significantly ahead of the curve, but I've been wondering lately if they finally relented on drop rates because coalition members seem to be having similar luck of late (or maybe we're just getting better about remembering positive experiences?)
  • rafalele
    rafalele Posts: 876 Critical Contributor
    edited August 2017
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    Again dupe rate is ...

    Just now Nodes of power has finished.

    While playing the game in platinum the last reward getting 100 (i think) ribbons was a rare, Remorseless punishment.

    Now that Nodes of power has finished I received a new rare as reward of finishing in 4th place.

    The rare was the same. Really????????

    Two rares and the same card?

    This has happened to me before, it is not the first time(not the same card ;) of course). Has happened to anyone the same?
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
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    56 rares in bfZ. 

    5 people in your bracket on average encountered this. 




  • losdamianos
    losdamianos Posts: 429 Mover and Shaker
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    I had dupe as well
    Do I need to disclose that I have all rares from this set ?
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Nah just pick up a pitchfork and start shaking fists. 
  • Outersider
    Outersider Posts: 119 Tile Toppler
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    I too had a dupe for my first two mythics in HOR, also the second two were dupes of each other... that random generator isnt working like it should.
  • rafalele
    rafalele Posts: 876 Critical Contributor
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    losdamianos said:
    I had dupe as well
    Do I need to disclose that I have all rares from this set ?
    I just have 13 different rares of BFZ and of 5 of them I have 2 copies. The frustrating thing in this, is to receive the same rare card as the last 2 rewards of the same event.
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Outersider said:
    I too had a dupe for my first two mythics in HOR, also the second two were dupes of each other... that random generator isnt working like it should.

    rafalele said:
    losdamianos said:
    I had dupe as well
    Do I need to disclose that I have all rares from this set ?
    I just have 13 different rares of BFZ and of 5 of them I have 2 copies. The frustrating thing in this, is to receive the same rare card as the last 2 rewards of the same event.

    @Volrak

    If you'll please. 
  • losdamianos
    losdamianos Posts: 429 Mover and Shaker
    edited August 2017
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    people should be banned for not understanding RNGeesus....

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