Drop rates seem off

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Spec-man2
Spec-man2 Posts: 3 Just Dropped In
in MPQ Suggestions and Feedback
i see that the oldest legendary packs are supposed to have a 1:7 rate for 5 stars yet my last 15-20 packs got me nothing. It's kind of a bummer considering the investments. 
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  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited July 2017
    0/20, cute and adorable.

    I've gone on multiple 0/40 streaks.

    RNG is RNG.
  • Moon Roach
    Moon Roach Posts: 2,863 Chairperson of the Boards
    Bowgentle said:
    0/20, cute and adorable.

    I've gone on multiple 0/40 streaks.

    RNG is RNG.

    Isn't that, like, twice as unlikely?
  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    Moon Roach said:
    Bowgentle said:
    0/20, cute and adorable.

    I've gone on multiple 0/40 streaks.

    RNG is RNG.

    Isn't that, like, twice as unlikely?


    Of course it is.
    Nothing you can do, though.
    Sure, complain to CS the first time you go 0/45, you'll get your one free cover.

    The next times this happens you're SOL.

  • Moon Roach
    Moon Roach Posts: 2,863 Chairperson of the Boards

    It was an intentional misunderstanding of how probability works, given away (or not) by the use of the word "like".

    At the published figures of 15% of getting a 5*, not getting a single 5* after 20 pulls is 3.87% likely.  You have to square that for 40 pulls, so about 0.15% likely.

    Let's have a "Hip Hip Hooray" for deterministic pseudo-random number generation.

  • sinnerjfl
    sinnerjfl Posts: 1,286 Chairperson of the Boards
    Spec-man2 said:
    i see that the oldest legendary packs are supposed to have a 1:7 rate for 5 stars yet my last 15-20 packs got me nothing. It's kind of a bummer considering the investments. 
    You'll end up with that advertised rate after...    maybe 500 pulls? Who knows, point is, it should all work itself out in the end because of probability but you don't exactly realize it because you pull 10 or 20 at a time.

    You need a bigger sample size. There are people who track their pulls, seems they get whats advertised eventually.
  • moss04
    moss04 Posts: 147 Tile Toppler
    I've tracked my last 480 pulls and still haven't yet reached the advertised 15%.  I'm at about 12%, which isn't horrible, but it's still a decent chunk below expected considering that 3% of 480 is 14 5-star covers.

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