Dupes

Gormhaus · June 2017

I have 111 different amonkhet cards and 194 duplicates. Some dupes i have as many as 8 of them. Does this ratio seem excessive? How is everyone else doing?

wereotter · June 2017

I only get Channeler Initiate as my reward rare card in events. I have 10 of it after this morning's Trial of Ambition ended. Bit frustrating considering how many rares from the block I don't have.

tiaxotrax · June 2017

there are a total of 158 amonkhet cards you have 111 uniques resulting in 70% of all possible cards in a set that was released less than a month ago.

so yeah it seems a bit excessive.

julianus · June 2017

Your total number and ratio of dupes are both greater than mine - I have 86 unique cards and 62 duplicates of those.

I would imagine, given the way that numbers and rarity work with card packs, at a certain point you start accumulating duplicate cards faster than the number of new unique cards. And I think that point happens pretty soon, after you start opening packs.

wereotter · June 2017

julianus said:

Your total number and ratio of dupes are both greater than mine - I have 86 unique cards and 62 duplicates of those.
I would imagine, given the way that numbers and rarity work with card packs, at a certain point you start accumulating duplicate cards faster than the number of new unique cards. And I think that point happens pretty soon, after you start opening packs.

It's especially true at this point where there's till about 40 cards that haven't been released into the wild just yet.

speakupaskanswer · June 2017

I got my third Vizier of the Menagerie today. I have five Canyon Sloughs. I'm still missing 8 commons. All of this deteriorates the good will I still have for this game.

Volrak · June 2017

Gormhaus said:

I have 111 different amonkhet cards and 194 duplicates. Some dupes i have as many as 8 of them. Does this ratio seem excessive? How is everyone else doing?

If you mean is it excessive under the standard assumptions of uniform random drops, it's an objective question that can easily be tested.

I'm taking you to mean you have 111 + 194 (305) AKH cards in total, which include 111 different cards and 194 which are copies of one of those 111. I simulated 305 random AKH drops according to observed drop rates over a large number of runs, and took the number of different cards from each run.

The results:

The expected number of different cards from 305 drops is 108.
69% of runs had at least one card with 8 or more copies.
The chance of 194 or more dupes from 305 drops is 85%.

So while 194 dupes could certainly subjectively feel excessive, it's objectively not excessive to expectations based on standard drop rate assumptions.

I'm also using the following assumptions, which could be modeled correctly if you know the true numbers in each case:

The 305 cards include no event rewards of fixed rarity - such cards would be less likely to be duplicates.
None of the 305 cards are from basic boosters (all from "normal" packs). Cards from basic boosters are more likely to be duplicates, since common drops are far more likely.

Volrak · June 2017

And here's how many dupes you can expect to get as a function of how many total AKH cards you've opened. As you can see, the rate at which you get new cards flattens off quite quickly.

Image: https://s7.postimg.org/z9itopxvv/num-dupes-per-drops-akh.png

Gormhaus · June 2017

Thank you. That was awesome information @Volrak .

Dropspot · June 2017

Basically after 80-90 cards we are only opening dupes....

Gideon · June 2017

In this game don't EVER EVER expect to get a complete set . It is an impossibility. That is the way it is designed so you have to keep playing or spending money.

madwren · June 2017

Volrak the Oracle. /bow

Gunmix25 · June 2017

Gormhaus said:

I have 111 different amonkhet cards and 194 duplicates. Some dupes i have as many as 8 of them. Does this ratio seem excessive? How is everyone else doing?

@Gormhaus I have 122 different Amonkhet cards and 240 dupes. Looking at the cards there are numerous commons at just 2 or 3. I've gotten most of my dupes in uncommon. Rares that are duped are oddly numbered in 3's in select cards, the rest are singular. All my mythics are singular, of which is a total of 6.

Gormhaus · June 2017

I got my first masterpiece in amonkhet (aggravated assault,) 2 mythics (glorious end and curator of mysteries.) And 15 individual rares and 8 duplicate rares. No dupes for mythics or masterpieces.

Froggy · June 2017

In case someone finds this useful for the sake of statistical information:

Total AKH cards pulled: 640 (don't ask!)
Non-dupes: 131
Dupes: 509

Of the 131 DIFFERENT cards:
Common: 64
Uncommon: 36
Rare: 25
Mythic: 4
Masterpiece: 2

Didn't bother counting common and uncommon dupes, but for the others:
Rare dupes: 28 (on top of the 25 actual different cards)
Myhic dupes: 0
Masterpiece dupes: 0 (thank goodness!)

Volrak · June 2017

madwren said:

Volrak the Oracle. /bow

Thank you for your unsolicited prostrations - I assume you do not mean "everything Volrak says must be true", which is clearly baseless, but something more like "hmm, that graph agrees with the individual data points provided by Gormhaus, julianus, Gunmix25, and Froggy in this thread, so it appears that it may indeed be a useful generalisation".

If anyone ever wants to look at any analysis I've done in detail (I use Python and Excel) to check for errors (yes, I'm human) or just for learning's sake, I'd be glad to share.

Froggy · June 2017

Great! So all I have to do is get another 1500 AKH cards and I MIGHT, POSSIBLY, BY A SLIM CHANCE, get all AKH cards. Seems highly unlikely for more than a few reasons... But thank you for this information @Volrak

Gunmix25 · June 2017

Froggy said:

Great! So all I have to do is get another 1500 AKH cards and I MIGHT, POSSIBLY, BY A SLIM CHANCE, get all AKH cards. Seems highly unlikely for more than a few reasons... But thank you for this information @Volrak

Might be too early to say, but perhaps the new dupe system might provide a better chance at completing a set. But since its not out yet, this is purely speculation

Volrak · June 2017

Gideon said:

In this game don't EVER EVER expect to get a complete set . It is an impossibility. That is the way it is designed so you have to keep playing or spending money.

Although it's of course not impossible to get a complete set, it would take a huge number of packs (and certainly more than can be obtained for free). I was asked in a PM how many, on average. Some rough numbers from simulation, using current observed drop rates, are...

To get a complete set of AKH uncommons, open on average 75 5-card packs (4.5k mana crystals)
To get a complete set of AKH rares, open on average 600 5-card packs (36k mana crystals)
To get a complete set of AKH mythics, open on average 1000 5-card packs (60k mana crystals)
To get a complete set of AKH masterpieces, open on average 8400 5-card packs (500k mana crystals)

Although these are the rough averages, there is no upper bound. It could take arbitrarily many packs to complete a collection, though 99% of players should get the full set after around 4x the averages shown.

(Note that the rare total doesn't account for guaranteed rares from premium packs or event rewards. And elite packs, which haven't been considered here, are a much shorter pathway for mythics and masterpieces, particularly as long as dupes are being rerolled via support ticket.)

Twee · June 2017

I really hope something good comes of this all. I just bought a PP of Origins and only got the guaranteed rare when i only have 100 of the cards; 5 of the rares and 1 mythic. I will not buy another booster pack again of any kind. They simply arn't worth it as it is.

majincob · June 2017

Volrak said:

Gideon said:

In this game don't EVER EVER expect to get a complete set . It is an impossibility. That is the way it is designed so you have to keep playing or spending money.

Although it's of course not impossible to get a complete set, it would take a huge number of packs (and certainly more than can be obtained for free). I was asked in a PM how many, on average. Some rough numbers from simulation, using current observed drop rates, are...
To get a complete set of AKH uncommons, open on average 75 5-card packs (4.5k mana crystals)
To get a complete set of AKH rares, open on average 600 5-card packs (36k mana crystals)
To get a complete set of AKH mythics, open on average 1000 5-card packs (60k mana crystals)
To get a complete set of AKH masterpieces, open on average 8400 5-card packs (500k mana crystals)
Although these are the rough averages, there is no upper bound. It could take arbitrarily many packs to complete a collection, though 99% of players should get the full set after around 4x the averages shown.

(Note that the rare total doesn't account for guaranteed rares from premium packs or event rewards. And elite packs, which haven't been considered here, are a much shorter pathway for mythics and masterpieces, particularly as long as dupes are being rerolled via support ticket.)

So if the distribution is even for all the cards within a rarity, and assuming the current observed drop rate, you only need to spend ~$2000 on average to get all the mythics. That seems whale-able to me.

Dupes

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