Mainloop25 said: Try claiming your reward at a different time of the day.
I'm quite certain there is more going on under the hood than people realize.
We keep asking for them to post their "drop rates". If it were just some simple random algorithm, even with only basic logic, then it is to their advantage to actually post that and make it public. It gives consumer confidence and trust and would likely drive more sales. Some people would even gain confidence to start playing the law of large numbers and blow thousands at a time knowing full well that they can "expect" to proc a fair distribution of cards.
On the other hand, if they are using some "proprietary formula" behind the scenes to populate the "booster packs" and determine "rewards" then there is no way in tinykitty that they would even be allowed to publish that information.
Think about what this formula would be designed to do:
1. Control the flow of powerful cards into the economy
2. Ensure that it's nearly impossible to "complete" a collection so that there is always a demand for their products
3. Build artificial scarcity in order to manufacture "value" for certain cards and then assign a "price" in order to generate revenue
Once again, this would be insider information. We will never hear it from them as they are not allowed to disclose the information. We could only hear it "through rumour" since it would be unlawful to hear it otherwise.
#include <stdio.h> #include <stdlib.h> #include <time.h> #include <stdbool.h> #define LOOTABLE 58 #define TRIES 70 //Here we keep track of the number of times a unique rare has been generated int rarearray[LOOTABLE]; //functions// int RandomRare(){ return (rand()%LOOTABLE); } void swap(int num1, int num2) { int temp = rarearray[num1]; rarearray[num1] = rarearray[num2]; rarearray[num2] = temp; } int partition(int left, int right, int pivot) { int leftPointer = left -1; int rightPointer = right; while(true) { while(rarearray[++leftPointer] < pivot) { //do nothing } while(rightPointer > 0 && rarearray[--rightPointer] > pivot) { //do nothing } if(leftPointer >= rightPointer) { break; } else { swap(leftPointer,rightPointer); } } swap(leftPointer,right); return leftPointer; } void quickSort(int left, int right) { if(right-left <= 0) { return; } else { int pivot = rarearray[right]; int partitionPoint = partition(left, right, pivot); quickSort(left,partitionPoint-1); quickSort(partitionPoint+1,right); } } void FakeBellCurve(){ int temparray[LOOTABLE]; int count=0; int start=0,end=LOOTABLE-1; while(count<LOOTABLE){ temparray[start]=rarearray[count]; count++; start++; if(count>=LOOTABLE){ break; } temparray[end]=rarearray[count]; count++; end--; } count=0; while(count<LOOTABLE){ rarearray[count]=temparray[count]; count++; } } //end functions// int main() { //we'll seed it just once this time. srand(time(NULL)); int count=0; while(count<TRIES){ // open TRIES packs //generate 70 rares int randomrare=RandomRare(); rarearray[randomrare]++; count++; } //let's sort it for readability quickSort(0,LOOTABLE-1); //put it in a bell curve format FakeBellCurve(); //print in bell curve format count=LOOTABLE-1; while(count>=0){ int innercount=0; while(innercount<LOOTABLE){ if(rarearray[innercount]>=count){ printf("%d",rarearray[innercount]); } else{ printf(" "); } innercount++; } printf("\n"); count--; } /*count=0; while(count<LOOTABLE){ printf("%d\n",rarearray[count]); count++; }*/ system("pause"); return 0; }
shteev said: I've just got my 10th Consulate Crackdown as my RatC reward, and I very much feel like something fishy is going on. Out of the other AER rares, I have 7 Release the Gremlins, and no more than 3 of anything else.
Volrak said: shteev said: I've just got my 10th Consulate Crackdown as my RatC reward, and I very much feel like something fishy is going on. Out of the other AER rares, I have 7 Release the Gremlins, and no more than 3 of anything else.I tested how likely you are to have 10 of your most common AER rare pull while having 3 or less of everything from the third most popular rare pull onwards.Algorithm:Loop for each simulation run: Loop (rare pulls): Pull a uniformly random non-exclusive AER rare (one of 12 cards) If the third most popular pull has 4 or more copies then break out of loop End loop If the most popular pull has 10 or more copies then mark the run as shteev-compatibleEnd loopOutput the proportion of shteev-compatible runs to total runsAnd the answer is about 0.33%, 1 in 300. If the rare chosen for you is random each time, then this is quite unusual, but not astronomically strange: it's actually very likely to happen to at least somebody from the forum-going players.
madwren said: What's always odd to me is the streaks. I had a run wehre I got 4 Glint-Sleeve Siphoner in a row from events, followed by 3 Solemn Recruits, followed by 3 Greenbelt Rampagers and a pair of Quicksmith Spies. Today I got a Crackdown, I wonder if I'll get 2 more?
Houdin said: Gee imagine that. Two more ballista as my reward for nodes personal and team. Wow good thing I'm the only statistical anomaly, I might really start thinking we are getting ripped off if this was happening to anyone else
Chavez303 said: So I've had a theory about the drops here and let me know what you guys think. We're all operating under the assumption that a random number generator picks the cards. Well, what if it's not so random. We all have a UID. My theory is that there is some algorithmic hocus pocus that all starts with your UID. I've been chasing several rares and mythics for well over a year now and just can't seem to get them....however I have plenty of others that I seem to get quite often like the rest of you. If we all had our own "bell curve" based on our UID number, then that would make sense what shteev is getting Consulates and Houdin is getting Ballistas, and so forth and so forth.Just a theory.
madwren said: Maybe it's the same one that randomly determines our opponents in events. =p