Drope rates increase?

Koolmind
Koolmind Posts: 39 Just Dropped In
edited February 2017 in MtGPQ General Discussion
3 big boxes 8 mythics (3 dupes)and a lot of rares (many dupes)

Comments

  • Steeme
    Steeme Posts: 784 Critical Contributor
    Sounds like you got lucky. 3 boxes is a very low sample size.
  • Koolmind
    Koolmind Posts: 39 Just Dropped In
    Steeme wrote:
    Sounds like you got lucky. 3 boxes is a very low sample size.
    A member of our coalition has got 4 mythics in one big box (bfz) all new!
  • blacklotus
    blacklotus Posts: 589 Critical Contributor
    i opened 2 bfz and 2 soi bb. zero mythics.
  • SeditiousCanary
    SeditiousCanary Posts: 77 Match Maker
    Got a Big Box of Battle for Zendikar* today. Three new mythics, and two new rares (plus one duplicate rare).

    Sphinx of the Final Word
    Tyrant of Valakut
    Zendikar Resurgent
    Defiant Bloodlord
    Lantern Scout
    Matter Reshaper (Duplicate)

    * After careful analysis of which sets I had a higher chance of pulling cards I did not already have, and knowing that Aether Revolt is coming, so there is more value in waiting for it to drop first before getting boxes of Kaladesh.
  • Magog
    Magog Posts: 106 Tile Toppler
    I've been noticing this too, over the past two days I've gotten 3 rares from five booster packs.

    Granted they were all dupes, but still, I think that's something.
  • buscemi
    buscemi Posts: 673 Critical Contributor
    Gather some data, do an analysis, and find out.

    I'm going to sit on my packs until the results are in.
  • Celerial
    Celerial Posts: 15 Just Dropped In
    We had someone get a 600 crystal pack today and walk away with one rare, the guaranteed one, that's it.
  • buscemi
    buscemi Posts: 673 Critical Contributor
    Today I opened 3 big boxes, 9 Fat Packs, and about 30 boosters, and I got 1 mythic. Some rares, true, but only 1 mythic.
  • Mainloop25
    Mainloop25 Posts: 1,980 Chairperson of the Boards
    I got seven rares out of one KLD big box and no mythics. Maybe Octal9 can update his sheet with the data from this thread?
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Mainloop25 wrote:
    Maybe Octal9 can update his sheet with the data from this thread?
    That would be a bad idea. Why? People are posting here generally because something exceptional happened. The data is self-selecting in some sense and is not representative; keep reading and you'll see what I mean. Using this data to estimate overall drop rates is a bit like trying to estimate the percentage of all your customers who are satisfied with your service by using the proportion of praise and complaints you got on your feedback line.

    I fully encourage people to add data to Octal's spreadsheet, but the stats are only valid if the data is unbiased. To ensure unbiased data, the suggested approach is to decide you will add the data *before* you open the packs, and then follow through as per your decision regardless of what you actually opened.

    However, we can validly use the stats collected so far to tell people (from this and other threads) how lucky or unlucky they were, in terms of total number of rares/mythics obtained.

    From the very lucky:
    THEMAGICkMAN wrote:
    I got a mythic and 0 rares in a fat pack
    On mythics, luckier than 82.2% of people; on rares, unluckier than 58.8% of people
    span_argoman wrote:
    My coalition members have opened KLD+AR Big Boxes with 2 mythics.
    They're luckier than 85.1% of people
    Mainloop25 wrote:
    I got seven rares out of one KLD big box and no mythics.
    On rares, luckier than 95.6% of people; on mythics, unluckier than 52.0% of people
    SeditiousCanary wrote:
    Got a Big Box of Battle for Zendikar* today. Three new mythics, and two new rares (plus one duplicate rare)
    On mythics, luckier than 96.3% of people; on rares, luckier than 36.3% of people
    Koolmind wrote:
    A member of our coalition has got 4 mythics in one big box (bfz) all new!
    Luckier than 99.5% of people! 0.43% of people (about 1 in 230) share your luck, and 0.06% of people (about 1 in 1600) would get even more mythics
    Koolmind wrote:
    3 big boxes 8 mythics (3 dupes)and a lot of rares (many dupes)
    (Assuming KLD/AER) Luckier than 99.8% of people! 0.14% of people (about 1 in 700) share your luck, and 0.04% of people (about 1 in 2400) would get even more mythics

    To the very unlucky...
    Falizar wrote:
    6 big boxes i opened and i got 1 Aether Revolt Mythic - Lightning Runner. I did 9 other rares with 2 solemn recruit and 2 Greenbelt Rampager.
    (Assuming 1 mythic and 9 rares opened in total) Unluckier on mythics than 93.4% of people; unluckier on rares than 99.4% of people(!)
    blacklotus wrote:
    i opened 2 bfz and 2 soi bb. zero mythics.
    Unluckier than 94.2% of people
    Msaytar wrote:
    I opened 60 packs of kaladesh / aether revolt this afternoon and didn't receive a single mythic.
    Unluckier than 94.7% of people
    Houdin wrote:
    So, I just opened a total of 350 kaladesh cards without a single mythic and only three rares
    Unluckier on mythics than 96.8% of people; unluckier on rares than 99.99% of people(!) Only about 1 in about 40,000 people would get even fewer rares!
    buscemi wrote:
    Today I opened 3 big boxes, 9 Fat Packs, and about 30 boosters, and I got 1 mythic. Some rares, true, but only 1 mythic.
    (Assuming KLD/AER) Unluckier on mythics than 97.2% of people
    Celerial wrote:
    We had someone get a 600 crystal pack today and walk away with one rare, the guaranteed one, that's it.
    (Assuming KLD/AER) Unluckier on rares and mythics combined than 98.3% of people
    Houdin wrote:
    A team member of mine opened 450 cards without a single mythic.
    Unluckier than 98.8% of people! About 1.2% (1 in 80 people) share this degree of bad luck

    And the "most ordinary luck" prize goes to...
    span_argoman wrote:
    One Big Box opened with 1 mythic and 4+1 rares.
    Luckier on mythics than 50.3% of people; luckier on rares than 63.9% of people

    Stats explanation:
    These stats use estimated drop rates of 0.98% for mythic and 4.34% for rare, as per Octal's spreadsheet; 95% confidence intervals are 0.65%-1.31% for mythic and 3.69%-4.99% for rares; so actual probabilities could vary somewhat

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