So You want to Whale Latest Legendaries

According to my 10,000 run simulation, assuming you are starting with zero covers for all 3.
Plan on bringing 230* Latest legendary Tokens to Max a single 1 of 3 latest legendary characters.

*This does not include tokens or CP earned from 4-star champion rewards.
Sample Run
EDIT: If Customer Service will switch duplicate covers beyond 5 for you, so it's only a race to 13...
Bring 201 Latest legendary Tokens

Sample Run
This will be different for everyone, but on a personal level with a starting position of
I need aprox. 180 to finish a single CLASSIC 5-star. Which by most accounts will be a 10 cover Surfer.
Or a minimum of 9 *fingers crossed*

Plan on bringing 230* Latest legendary Tokens to Max a single 1 of 3 latest legendary characters.

*This does not include tokens or CP earned from 4-star champion rewards.
Sample Run
Number of Legendary Tokens: 305 Number of 4 Star Covers: 259 (84.92%) Number of 5 Star Covers: 46 (15.08%) Number of 5 Star Covers Sold: 9 :( ----------------------- Black Bolt 4/4/5 Black Widow 3/5/4 Dr. Strange 5/5/2
EDIT: If Customer Service will switch duplicate covers beyond 5 for you, so it's only a race to 13...
Bring 201 Latest legendary Tokens

Sample Run
Number of Legendary Tokens: 183 Number of 4 Star Covers: 155 (84.7%) Number of 5 Star Covers: 28 (15.3%) Number of 5 Star Covers Sold: 0 ----------------------- Black Bolt [6/0/0] Black Widow [13/0/0] Dr. Strange [9/0/0]
This will be different for everyone, but on a personal level with a starting position of
-Starting Position---------------------- Green Goblin [1/1/0] Iron Man [3/0/2] Phoenix [4/1/1] Silver Surfer [2/4/4] Spider-Man [3/0/2] Captain America [0/0/0] Hulk [3/2/1] Old Man Logan [3/2/2]
I need aprox. 180 to finish a single CLASSIC 5-star. Which by most accounts will be a 10 cover Surfer.
Or a minimum of 9 *fingers crossed*

-Ending Position---------------------- Green Goblin [1/2/1] Iron Man [4/0/2] Phoenix [4/3/3] Silver Surfer [4/4/5] Spider-Man [5/0/4] Captain America [1/1/1] Hulk [3/2/5] Old Man Logan [3/4/3]
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Comments
No, sadly... there is no way to estimate their willingness to help you. More so than anything else, it's truly random.
While I don't disagree with your concluding sentiments, I think that is an important factor that would completely change your results and conclusions.
For the purposes of a Latest legend character, we are really only interested in how fast can we acquire 13 covers. Color should be considered irrelevant in this situation.
of course, should CS change its mind on the swap policy, we should revisit your work
I was under the understanding they would swap Latest draws. Perhaps I have bad info on that. At any rate, I cooked up a sim, and my results are right in line with yours, in the 230 draw ballpark, with an average of a little over 3 sold (though there can be the occasional "bad luck" runs in here, sometimes going over 20 for a single iteration).
If were allowing for CS to swap colors, it comes down to about 200 draws on average.
I ran that simulation. Here are the results:
You're absolutely right, even with CS support the Std.Dev was 50+
The min. was 67, LUCKY GUY!
The max, a heart breaking, 374
If you had no 5-star covers....it would take on average, 500 pulls to max a single CLASSIC character
with an average of;
431 - Four Stars
76 - Five Stars
Example Run
edit: my target is 300 pulls. wondering where that falls in the curve...
You should be feeling good with 300 pulls for 2 characters
Sample Run