So You want to Whale Latest Legendaries

HendrossHendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
edited March 2017 in Theories and Statistics
According to my 10,000 run simulation, assuming you are starting with zero covers for all 3.
Plan on bringing 230* Latest legendary Tokens to Max a single 1 of 3 latest legendary characters.

LT_Token_Stats_zpsvzddvzrh.jpg

*This does not include tokens or CP earned from 4-star champion rewards.

Sample Run 
Number of Legendary Tokens: 305
Number of 4 Star Covers: 259 (84.92%)
Number of 5 Star Covers: 46 (15.08%)
Number of 5 Star Covers Sold: 9 :(
-----------------------
Black Bolt     4/4/5
Black Widow 3/5/4
Dr. Strange  5/5/2

EDIT: If Customer Service will switch duplicate covers beyond 5 for you, so it's only a race to 13...
Bring 201 Latest legendary Tokens

LT_Token_Stats_CS_zpsbamejljg.jpg

Sample Run 
Number of Legendary Tokens: 183
Number of 4 Star Covers: 155 (84.7%)
Number of 5 Star Covers: 28 (15.3%)
Number of 5 Star Covers Sold: 0
-----------------------
Black Bolt      [6/0/0]
Black Widow     [13/0/0]
Dr. Strange     [9/0/0]

This will be different for everyone, but on a personal level with a starting position of 
-Starting Position----------------------
Green Goblin    [1/1/0]
Iron Man        [3/0/2]
Phoenix         [4/1/1]
Silver Surfer   [2/4/4]
Spider-Man      [3/0/2]
Captain America [0/0/0]
Hulk            [3/2/1]
Old Man Logan   [3/2/2]

I need aprox. 180 to finish a single CLASSIC 5-star. Which by most accounts will be a 10 cover Surfer.
Or a minimum of 9 *fingers crossed*

LT_Token_Stats_Classics_Personal_zpsaf2hnqxi.jpg
-Ending Position----------------------
Green Goblin    [1/2/1]
Iron Man        [4/0/2]
Phoenix         [4/3/3]
Silver Surfer   [4/4/5]
Spider-Man      [5/0/4]
Captain America [1/1/1]
Hulk            [3/2/5]
Old Man Logan   [3/4/3]
«1345

Comments

  • brollbroll Posts: 4,727 Chairperson of the Boards
    I'll get right on that icon_e_biggrin.gificon_e_biggrin.gificon_e_biggrin.gif
  • GrumpySmurf1002GrumpySmurf1002 Age Unconfirmed Posts: 3,511 Chairperson of the Boards
    5750 CP. With that reduced by however many LTs earned by then, I could probably save that in ~6 months or so. Doesn't feel so bad.
  • firethornefirethorne Posts: 1,497 Chairperson of the Boards
    Does your sim allow for contacting support to swap a cover already on 5?
  • grunth13grunth13 Posts: 578 Critical Contributor
    I started with 2 strange, 2 bolt and 1 natasha covers. I pulled somewhere in the 240 range and maxed natty with extra 6 covers, strange was max covered (granted I needed to get my purples exchanged by C/S) and bolt now has 12 covers. I think its not crazy to do every cycle if you are spending money. Also, if you can keep all your heroes around the same max levels, your scaling won't be crazy off to the point you still have to use oml/pho.
  • HendrossHendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    firethorne wrote:
    Does your sim allow for contacting support to swap a cover already on 5?

    No, sadly... there is no way to estimate their willingness to help you. More so than anything else, it's truly random.
  • PhumadePhumade Posts: 1,936 Chairperson of the Boards
    Hendross wrote:
    firethorne wrote:
    Does your sim allow for contacting support to swap a cover already on 5?

    No, sadly... there is no way to estimate their willingness to help you. More so than anything else, it's truly random.

    While I don't disagree with your concluding sentiments, I think that is an important factor that would completely change your results and conclusions.

    For the purposes of a Latest legend character, we are really only interested in how fast can we acquire 13 covers. Color should be considered irrelevant in this situation.

    of course, should CS change its mind on the swap policy, we should revisit your work
  • JarvindJarvind Posts: 1,684 Chairperson of the Boards
    Any chance of running this for Classics? I'd be curious to see what the numbers look like with the greatly diluted odds in that pool.
  • firethornefirethorne Posts: 1,497 Chairperson of the Boards
    Phumade wrote:
    Hendross wrote:
    firethorne wrote:
    Does your sim allow for contacting support to swap a cover already on 5?

    No, sadly... there is no way to estimate their willingness to help you. More so than anything else, it's truly random.

    While I don't disagree with your concluding sentiments, I think that is an important factor that would completely change your results and conclusions.

    For the purposes of a Latest legend character, we are really only interested in how fast can we acquire 13 covers. Color should be considered irrelevant in this situation.

    of course, should CS change its mind on the swap policy, we should revisit your work

    I was under the understanding they would swap Latest draws. Perhaps I have bad info on that. At any rate, I cooked up a sim, and my results are right in line with yours, in the 230 draw ballpark, with an average of a little over 3 sold (though there can be the occasional "bad luck" runs in here, sometimes going over 20 for a single iteration).

    If were allowing for CS to swap colors, it comes down to about 200 draws on average.
  • FightmastermpqFightmastermpq Age Unconfirmed Posts: 995 Critical Contributor
    I have not yet heard of anyone requesting a Latest swap that was denied (within the past few months or whenever that "rumor" was floated). Classics sure, and Latest 6 months-a year ago yeah, but recently everyone I have heard that has asked has been helped.
  • brollbroll Posts: 4,727 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited November 2016
    Jarvind wrote:
    Any chance of running this for Classics? I'd be curious to see what the numbers look like with the greatly diluted odds in that pool.

    I ran that simulation. Here are the results:
    skeleton_in_sitting_chair_by_karlie_alinta-d4e2j74.jpg
  • HendrossHendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    I have included the results "with CS assistance" which lowers the mean to ~200
  • PeeOnePeeOne Posts: 233 Tile Toppler
    You can swap a cover that you already have 5 of????
  • HendrossHendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    aesthetocyst wrote:
    Hendross wrote:
    I have included the results "with CS assistance" which lowers the mean to ~200

    Important caveat ... Youre sighting the mean of a distribution. Which translates into a confidence of 50%?

    What was the worst run? The best? Or luckiest/unluckiest if you rather?

    I ran simulations back when 5s first dropped, and revisit them, but always with 2 different assumptions: 1) that the player wants to maxcover all characters, and 2)... With a high degree of confidence (80+%). It paints more depressing pictures icon_lol.gif

    You're absolutely right, even with CS support the Std.Dev was 50+

    The min. was 67, LUCKY GUY!
    The max, a heart breaking, 374 icon_cry.gif
  • DeNappaDeNappa Posts: 1,055 Chairperson of the Boards
    So, how many pulls do you need on average for at least one specific 5* cover? (Dr. Strange yellow, in my case, has been eluding me, after burning my entire CP + leg token stockpile icon_cry.gif )
  • FightmastermpqFightmastermpq Age Unconfirmed Posts: 995 Critical Contributor
    DeNappa wrote:
    So, how many pulls do you need on average for at least one specific 5* cover? (Dr. Strange yellow, in my case, has been eluding me, after burning my entire CP + leg token stockpile icon_cry.gif )
    60? 1 in 20 for a character, and then 1 in 3 on top of that for the color?
  • HendrossHendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    edited November 2016
    Jarvind wrote:
    Any chance of running this for Classics? I'd be curious to see what the numbers look like with the greatly diluted odds in that pool.

    If you had no 5-star covers....it would take on average, 500 pulls to max a single CLASSIC character

    LT_Token_Stats_Classics_0_CLassic_zpsxcpwgg39.jpg

    with an average of;

    431 - Four Stars
    76 - Five Stars

    Example Run 
    Number of Legendary Tokens: 515
Number of 4 Star Covers: 443 (86.02%)
Number of 5 Star Covers: 72 (13.98%)

-Ending Position----------------------
Green Goblin    [4/3/0]
Iron Man        [3/5/5] WINNER
Phoenix         [2/3/2]
Silver Surfer   [1/0/3]
Spider-Man      [2/3/5]
Captain America [5/0/3]
Hulk            [2/3/5]
Old Man Logan   [5/3/1]
  • TxMooseTxMoose Age Unconfirmed Posts: 4,319 Chairperson of the Boards
    very curious what the numbers would be to max 2 or 3 from latests. that's what I plan to do in several months.

    edit: my target is 300 pulls. wondering where that falls in the curve...
  • HendrossHendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    TxMoose wrote:
    very curious what the numbers would be to max 2 or 3 from latests. that's what I plan to do in several months.

    edit: my target is 300 pulls. wondering where that falls in the curve...

    You should be feeling good with 300 pulls for 2 characters
    TxMoose_zpsbyujetjg.jpg

    Sample Run 
    Number of Legendary Tokens: 263
Number of 4 Star Covers: 229 (87.07%)
Number of 5 Star Covers: 34 (12.93%)
-----------------------
Black Bolt      [8/0/0]
Black Widow     [13/0/0]
Dr. Strange     [13/0/0]
  • DFiPLDFiPL Posts: 2,405 Chairperson of the Boards
    Truthfully? I'm happy if my 5* have one cover in each power so I can play with all the toys. I don't anticipate playing in the 5* pool anytime soon at all, so I don't need a 13-cover 5*. I just want shiny toys.
  • HadronicHadronic Posts: 338 Mover and Shaker
    these really should be poisson distributions not gaussian.
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