End of Season Data [Historical] - Nerd Alert!

SalgySalgy Age Unconfirmed Posts: 254
I went full nerd mode to try to help other commanders plan their end of season moves, for next season and beyond. I wanted to see if there was a correlation between the top alliance score and the alliance scores at various ranks (10th, 25th, 50th, 75th & 100th) using the historical data that Flare (and others) have been compiling.

The good news? there actually is some correlation between the top alliance and alliance #100, and regardless of the top alliances score, looking at it as a function of a percentage of that top score, there are data points that we can look at. On average, the 10th ranked team scored 70% of the top ranked team, the 25th ranked alliance scored 60%, the 50th scored 53%, the 75th scored 51%, and the 100th ranked team scored 50% of the top ranked team... these data points (i think) are important when looking at your alliance scores at seasons end and trying to judge how far you might slip in the rankings (or give you a good idea about the score threshold of a merc you need to recruit)...

The bad news? scoring is tight... and always has been... on average, the scoring difference between the 50th ranked alliance and the 100th ranked alliance has been right about 10,500 points (or 525 per alliance member), the difference between #25 & #100 has been right about 30,500 (1525 per alliance member)and finally, the scoring difference between alliance #10 and alliance #100 has only been 76,000. now divide that number by 20 people per alliance, and then by 11 events per season* (i'm including sim) and that is only an increased production of 345 points per event, per person separating #10 from #100...

* i know that not all seasons have had 10 events, but it seems to be the typical season length...

here is a pretty line chart that you can look at, showing the season score on the left, and the season number along the bottom:
wngJhiW.png?1

also, if anyone wants to peek at the raw data, Here is a link to the excel file in dropbox...

lastly, if anyone wants to look at the numbers and come up with any further information/correlations you feel is important, feel free!

Comments

  • stochasticismstochasticism Posts: 1,181 Chairperson of the Boards
    If you want to make a quick adjustment to the data to make Season XIX not be such an outlier just multiple the scores by 10/7 to account for the proportion of events in a standard season vs that season. Curious if that smooths the plot out.
  • MalcrofMalcrof GLOBAL_MODERATORS Posts: 5,971 Chairperson of the Boards
    Moved to Statistics, shadow topic left for now
  • GrumpySmurf1002GrumpySmurf1002 Age Unconfirmed Posts: 3,511 Chairperson of the Boards
    I was gonna be offended until I realized I hadn't updated mine since March lol. viewtopic.php?f=20&t=20396#p314300 Thanks Salgy.
    If you want to make a quick adjustment to the data to make Season XIX not be such an outlier just multiple the scores by 10/7 to account for the proportion of events in a standard season vs that season. Curious if that smooths the plot out.

    Mine has that data, at least up to season 11. I have the data at home too, I'll update this weekend.
  • SalgySalgy Age Unconfirmed Posts: 254
    If you want to make a quick adjustment to the data to make Season XIX not be such an outlier just multiple the scores by 10/7 to account for the proportion of events in a standard season vs that season. Curious if that smooths the plot out.
    as requested, i adjusted* the seasons i knew about for length, and set them all on a 10 event season... it does smooth out the plot, but you can also see the effects of shield cooldowns and the retreat boosting nerf's impact on the next seasons scoring... i guess the resiliency of the top teams will continue to persevere regardless of what the devs throw at us!

    VM4Thbf.png?1

    * adjustments were made to:
    Season 1 - from 12 events to 10
    Season 2 - from 11 events to 10
    Season 3 - from 12 events to 10
    Season 4 - from 13 events to 10
    Season 6 - from 9 events to 10
    Season 9 - from 9 events to 10
    Season 19 - from 7 events to 10
    - if anyone remembers any other seasons that i may have missed that were not 10 events long, or if my information is incorrect, let me know and i can readjust the numbers... the number of events came primarily from Kiwi's post Here... (thanks for the link grumpysmurf!)

    i am amazed to see that while the gap between alliance #1 and #10 is growing, the gap between the alliances #10 and #25 is shrinking... and the gap between #50 and #100 is almost non existent...
  • SalgySalgy Age Unconfirmed Posts: 254
    *** updated for season 21 ***

    I have taken the opportunity to update the spreadsheet and graphs with season 21's data. looking at the data, there isn't anything that really sticks out to me... the separation between #1 & #10 continues to grow (a trend that has been visible since season 16) and at the bottom, the difference between #50 & #100 continues to be a tight race. Scoring was up across the boards for the most part, most notably at the top, where the #1 team averaged a 420 point increase per member, per event. i am using sim as its own event, and dividing total alliance score by 20 and then by 11 if anyone is checking my math...

    per person scoring breaks down like this:
    #1: 420 point increase per member, per event
    #10: 100 point increase per member, per event
    #25: 76 point increase per member, per event
    #50: 30 point increase per member, per event

    <here is where it gets interesting>
    #75: 1.5 point increase per member, per event (yes, that's one and a half points)
    #100: 50 point decrease per member, per event

    alliances ranked #75 & 100 have seen their season points steadily decline (or stay flat in the case of #75 this season) since season 19, where they both experienced their respective highest score recorded.

    just because some people can't look at numbers with out pretty pictures, here you go icon_e_biggrin.gif
    gDJe8gO.png?2
    Adjusted for season length

    XbeAH7a.png?2
    Unadjusted data

    If anyone wants the raw numbers to look at, here they are: Unadjusted & Adjusted
  • SalgySalgy Age Unconfirmed Posts: 254
    Updated to include seasons 22-24... great thanks to moonroach for picking up the rankings where flair left off...

    not much to update, same trends that were prevelant last update are still there... i have only updated the adjusted numbers... Here is a fresh link to them if you want to see them...
  • SalgySalgy Age Unconfirmed Posts: 254
    Updated to include season 25...

    it is interesting to note that the #100 team last season put up 34,000 points less than in season 24... i am not sure what this means, but when considering 700 fewer alliances played season 25 vs season 24, to me this makes it seem like player engagement is down...
  • jojeda654jojeda654 Posts: 1,160 Chairperson of the Boards
    Would you consider updating with Season 26 stats?

    This is a great thread. I've added it to the Tips and Guides Index under Game Stats.
  • PongiePongie Posts: 1,326 Chairperson of the Boards
    I wish this thread was stickied
  • SalgySalgy Age Unconfirmed Posts: 254
    Updated to include through season 29... Not quite sure what happened in season 28, there was a huge anomaly in the #1 alliances score when comparing it to history... Maybe there was a typo in entering the score data or some sort of scoring glitch?!? Who knows...

    Link Here
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