Interesting token luck

chaos01
chaos01 Posts: 316 Mover and Shaker
edited May 2015 in MPQ General Discussion
I am a bit OCD so I keep records of my token openings. Since update 75 came out I have opened 112 standard tokens, 8 heroic tokens, 54 taco tokens, and 34 random PVE event tokens. With not a single golden cover. I am either incredibly unlucky or my recent App Store ratings and reviews have caught up to me. Most likely the former.

Comments

  • Unknown
    Unknown
    No, the so-called good odds were not true.
    In a separate thread, I've been keeping track, and in 47 gold tokens, I have had two gold covers. Both these came from the season 10 pack, and one was not usable.

    I have now opened 37 normal gold tokens in a row (discounting the 10 pack) without a single gold cover.

    Great odds indeed.
  • spatenfloot
    spatenfloot Posts: 665 Critical Contributor
    This is how random numbers work. It is like gambling. Sometimes it goes your way, mostly it doesn't.
    For a heroic token, for example, there is a slightly less than 30% chance of a gold token. Opening more doesn't increase the odds for each token. Each one still has a 70% chance of giving you a 2 star. If you have bad luck, it can be a long wait. Standard tokens are even worse, but we don't know the specific odds.
  • d0nk3y
    d0nk3y Posts: 213
    Twombley wrote:
    No, the so-called good odds were not true.
    In a separate thread, I've been keeping track, and in 47 gold tokens, I have had two gold covers. Both these came from the season 10 pack, and one was not usable.

    I have now opened 37 normal gold tokens in a row (discounting the 10 pack) without a single gold cover.

    Great odds indeed.

    The way the tokens drop golds, it feels more like the game uses a pseudo-RNG rather than a true RNG. As a counter-point to your luck, I've opened probably 12 non-standard, non-Taco tokens in the last four days and have gotten 1 star.pngstar.pngstar.pngstar.png and 5 star.pngstar.pngstar.png covers - I open the tokens when they drop; I don't have the patience to hoard them. Prior to this hot streak, I went for 6 weeks any only got two or three gold covers out of all the tokens I opened.
  • chaos01
    chaos01 Posts: 316 Mover and Shaker
    donkey,

    I dislike you so much right now. icon_e_biggrin.gif
  • Arondite
    Arondite Posts: 1,188 Chairperson of the Boards
    Twombley wrote:
    No, the so-called good odds were not true.
    In a separate thread, I've been keeping track, and in 47 gold tokens, I have had two gold covers. Both these came from the season 10 pack, and one was not usable.

    I have now opened 37 normal gold tokens in a row (discounting the 10 pack) without a single gold cover.

    Great odds indeed.

    Anecdotal evidence.

    I've opened 54 this season and have pulled 21 Golds. This is also anecdotal evidence, and by no means suggests that almost half of all tokens will be golds.
  • heybub
    heybub Posts: 293 Mover and Shaker
    Yeah, I'm not sure what changed, but I, too, noticed the lack of gold covers. I was getting atleast 1 per day from draws for the longest time, and now I haven't gotten one in over a week. I think it is the game code. Random numbers shouldn't be this streaky....

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