Pulling for Captain America - a cautionary tale

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CharlieCroker
CharlieCroker Posts: 254 Mover and Shaker
in MPQ General Discussion
I know there is a separate thread where people are sharing their pulls for the new Cap but for reasons you'll see below I though this deserved it's own.

I started with 136 LT's and 4500cp, so 316 pulls.  Through 4* champ rewards (and the odd 5* champ level through feeders) I ended up opening a total of 372 Latest Legends.  I started with 1 cover for Ghostrider and nothing for either Jessica or Cap.  The results:

Jessica Jones - 11 covers now 5/1/5
Captain America - 11 covers also now 5/1/5
Robbie Reyes - 12 covers now 5/5/1 with 2 dupes which I obviously could get swaps for
5* BH - 0
4* BH - 25

So to summarise I went 34/372 for circa 9%.  Whereas my estimated return would be 56 5* covers with an expectation for a couple of 5* BH thrown in.  

This all means I ran 21+ covers below expectation and, having hoarded for 3+ months whilst suffering through the Gambit meta (having also run appallingly when first pulling for him) this really is unacceptable to me.  Whilst I have some maths background, standard deviation isn't a strength, so I'd welcome anyone who can run the numbers and explain quite how far I am towards the bottom of the curve and how much of an outlier this outcome is.

If @Brigby and @Demiurge_Will  are unable to do anything to remedy the game will be losing a longstanding paying customer (both VIP and occasional Starks/impulse buys) with immediate effect.  I have no will to continue playing this game to earn more resources with so little expected return.

A final note - most of us in the 5* tier are aware of others who have benefitted from glitches and exploits to bolster their rosters.  Whilst I would never condone doing so, when you hear of RNG hard luck stories like this, I can kinda understand why people would take such shortcuts.  
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Comments

  • PenniesForEveryone
    PenniesForEveryone Posts: 294 Mover and Shaker
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    That sucks.  You'll get a canned "stated odds are not guaranteed" type of response with nothing else to show for it.

    On the plus side, it's likely that you'll at least finish them all off by continuing to open your LTs until Ghost Rider leaves.
  • The rockett
    The rockett Posts: 2,016 Chairperson of the Boards
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    I was shocked when I saw this.  34/372 is disgusting.  9% pull rate.  Their are no words on how bad this is or the feeling when you have this bad of a pull streak.  TBH I would not expect them to do anything about this ever.  You have been a friend for many years now and it would suck to see you go.  I know they will live by the percentages and will just pat you on the head and say Better luck next time even this isn’t luck.  It’s all predetermined and locked in. I hope they do something but I fear they won’t.  
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,347 Chairperson of the Boards
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    I won’t tell you my results today because you would delete the game.  My lifetime rate before today over 1440 pulls was 12.6%. RNG is lousy.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited May 2018
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    How was your last three big pull of ~ 300 LT, not including this one?

    I heard about the 300 pull thing and you have a bad pull this round.
  • The rockett
    The rockett Posts: 2,016 Chairperson of the Boards
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    HoundofShadow said:
    How was your last three big pull of ~ 300 LT, not including this one?
    It would have to be 30% pull rate.  That only happens during the store glitches. Lol. 
  • Daiches
    Daiches Posts: 1,252 Chairperson of the Boards
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    I can check commiserate since over maybe last 320 pulls as long as Gambit was still in packs, I also went 10%. I'm hoarding now and fully expect to get a nice fat 20% when pulling for JJ. Improbable though..
  • CharlieCroker
    CharlieCroker Posts: 254 Mover and Shaker
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    HoundofShadow said:
    How was your last three big pull of ~ 300 LT, not including this one?

    I heard about the 300 pull thing and you have a bad pull this round.
    I recall pulling when Gambit first entered Latest and went around 10% over 140 pulls.  With only 4 of them being Gambit (I likely posted about that here somewhere).  And then continuing to run poorly until I started hoarding.

    Before that the only serious time I hoarded was for Thanos/Panther/Hawkeye.  I managed to cover 2/3 with BP completed soon after, and whilst I don't recall my % (we are talking around 1 year ago) it certainly wasn't significantly different than expected.
  • DyingLegend
    DyingLegend Posts: 1,194 Chairperson of the Boards
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    My 5 star pull rates have been horrendous lately from the current pack. I feel your pain
  • Sm0keyJ0e
    Sm0keyJ0e Posts: 730 Critical Contributor
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    I have had two horrible pull "spells": back when Natasha, Strange and Bolt were in latest, I pulled just shy of 400 at a slightly better than 8% clip. I nearly quit right then.

    More recently, I went 6/90 trying to get one JJ cover in order to her PVE--I got her cover on the 90th pull from her store.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited May 2018
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    Ignore this comment. I figured it out. 
    ~1:7 = 14.3%

    Oops @bluewolf you quoted my older post but thank you for your clarification.
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,347 Chairperson of the Boards
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    HoundofShadow said:
    Is the pull rate for each latest character 5% each which adds up to 15% or 15% each? I think there's a big difference?
    All we “know” is that the random number generator will approximate a 15% pull rate for 5*s over enough pulls. But it’s no promise, for sure, and it’s not 5% each character.
  • CharlieCroker
    CharlieCroker Posts: 254 Mover and Shaker
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    aesthetocyst said:
    @CharlieCroker ... Can you share a list of the pulls? Character and color?

    I'll be pulling my own, much smaller hoard tonight. I would say I'm not likely to o worse than you, but s friend just went 2 for 60(!!!!), and I'm pulling about 60 .... maybe I'll go 30 for 60, heh.

    You know, it they're going to load up our accounts with predetermined 'random' sequences, to curtail exploits, they could also algorithmically 'QA' those sequences, to avoid ridiculously aberrant results, both positive and negative.


    I'm sorry but I didn't methodically track colours or the progress of each character through my opening, although there was never a big outlier - each 5* was always with 1-2 pulls of each other.  There are a few things I can add from my updates to alliance chat on Line:

    - I was pulling in 20's to keep track easier and don't believe I ever bettered 3/20 (although went 3/12 to end)
    - started 5/60
    - next update 15/160
    - then 20/260 (yep that was a glorious 5/100 stretch)
    - then 25/300 (so with the generally accepted number of pulls to over the 3 Latest I'd have 3 8/9 cover characters)
    - finished 34/372 
    - Ghostrider started with 1 black - drew 6g, 1r, 5b
    - Jessica 1r, 5b, 5blue
    - Cap 5r, 1p, 5y
  • evade420
    evade420 Posts: 440 Mover and Shaker
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    this post makes me feel ill..
     375 pulls and no 5* champ is insanely bad ... like the worst
    im so sorry for your loss
  • CharlieCroker
    CharlieCroker Posts: 254 Mover and Shaker
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    aesthetocyst said:
    evade420 said:
    this post makes me feel ill..
     375 pulls and no 5* champ is insanely bad ... like the worst
    im so sorry for your loss
    He's got a champ Reyes there, after swaps.


    Which ironically is both the best to have (given he'll be next to leave Latest) and worst (given he's not boosted in PvP for the next 2 weeks and isn't as good as JJ).  But maybe I'll get the swaps through before he's next boosted in PVE if nothing else.

    Many thanks to Hadronic and Orion for the great info/maths and to all expressing sympathy and potential fixes.
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
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    Not going to help, but you had approximately the same odds of drawing 79/372 (21.2%).  You're like the faintest dot on the histogram that is barely visible with the naked eye.  I do empathize with you, it's really a grind with no guarantees.  Robbie is OK, hopefully you can finish the other 2 within 4 weeks.
  • Pongie
    Pongie Posts: 1,410 Chairperson of the Boards
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    I got under 10% before as well. it wasn’t latest but family legends (same odds)

    https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/69448/278-family-legends-pulls#latest
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
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    CharlieCroker said:
    aesthetocyst said:
    evade420 said:
    this post makes me feel ill..
     375 pulls and no 5* champ is insanely bad ... like the worst
    im so sorry for your loss
    He's got a champ Reyes there, after swaps.


    Which ironically is both the best to have (given he'll be next to leave Latest) and worst (given he's not boosted in PvP for the next 2 weeks and isn't as good as JJ).  But maybe I'll get the swaps through before he's next boosted in PVE if nothing else.

    Many thanks to Hadronic and Orion for the great info/maths and to all expressing sympathy and potential fixes.
    We just started a new Latest fivestar essential cycle in PvE, so Robbie should be essential next PvE. Can't see them running Cap as an essential Before him.

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