Ixalan Drop Rates - What's the Deal?

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  • Aeroplane
    Aeroplane Posts: 314 Mover and Shaker
    edited April 2018
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    FindingHeart8 said:
    Bil said:
        As far as I'm concerned i do not open XLN boosters anymore since i have noticed the droprates (oh well ... I opened a few because its its really frustrating when you have nothing to open in a TCG).
        I convinced myself that the timer on XLN boosters may be the deadline for something ... Regular droprates maybe ...
    Not gonna lie...I've literally packed better cards from the last 2 weeks worth of free 1-card boosters than I did from the 5 XLN premium packs I purchased.
    Yeah I'm not trusting the drop percentages after getting 1 mythic from 5 rivals premium packs.
  • Brigby
    Brigby ADMINISTRATORS Posts: 7,757 Site Admin
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    Hi Everyone. Please note that drop rates may differ slightly with each set, depending on the number of available cards contained within each rarity. 

    In the case of Rivals of Ixalan, combining that with its smaller set size means that it seems to have a more attractive drop rate.
  • ard021
    ard021 Posts: 39 Just Dropped In
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    Aeroplane said:
    FindingHeart8 said:
    Bil said:
        As far as I'm concerned i do not open XLN boosters anymore since i have noticed the droprates (oh well ... I opened a few because its its really frustrating when you have nothing to open in a TCG).
        I convinced myself that the timer on XLN boosters may be the deadline for something ... Regular droprates maybe ...
    Not gonna lie...I've literally packed better cards from the last 2 weeks worth of free 1-card boosters than I did from the 5 XLN premium packs I purchased.
    Yeah I'm not trusting the drop percentages after getting 1 mythic from 5 rivals premium packs.
    Rivals has a drop rate of 38.86% published for mythics in premium packs.  That comes out to an average of 1.943 mythics in 5 packs.  1 in 5 isn't unreasonable.  You just got unlucky.
  • Bil
    Bil Posts: 831 Critical Contributor
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    There is also another easy way to see it has nothing to do with the pool of cards and the mythic ratio ... Just compare it to origins.

    Origins : 246 cards, 24 mythics 26 % droprate 
    XLN : 191 cards, 26 mythics 13% droprate 

    Origins mythic ratio is lower ... Droprate is twice better.
  • Quantius
    Quantius Posts: 228 Tile Toppler
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    The pack size is the same, the set size being larger by volume does not change ratios of rarities within that set. So when the pack size is the same, but the drop rate is lower . . . you get worse drops . . . for a longer period of time because the set is larger.
  • gogol666
    gogol666 Posts: 316 Mover and Shaker
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    Houdin said:
    Brigby said:
    Hi Everyone. Please note that drop rates may differ slightly with each set, depending on the number of available cards contained within each rarity. 

    In the case of Rivals of Ixalan, combining that with its smaller set size means that it seems to have a more attractive drop rate.
    Hi @Brigby I'm sorry but this doesn't make sense mathematically. 
    ixalan has 181 cards available in the lootable set with 26 mythics. that's 14.36 % mythics.

    rivals has 99 lootable cards in the set with 17 mythics. That's 17.17% mythics.

    So if we go just by the number of cards in a set vs the number of mythics then yes the percentage drop rate would be slightly lower for ixalan vs rivals but only by a couple of percentage points.

    in order for the math to justify 13% drop rate in ixalan vs 38% in rivals which is a 292% difference I will use ixalan as the base percentage as that is the discussion point.

    rivals would have to only contain 62 cards in the set to make it valid.
    or the other way for rivals to have the same drop ratio as ixalan the set would need to contain a total of 289 cards with 41.5 mythics but if we multiply across by 292% rivals would contain 50 mythics at it's current mythic to set ratio.

    It may not seem like a big difference but it is in fact nearly a 20% change.

    For the set ratios to match up ixalans drop rate should be changed to roughly 23.66 for mythics. which would make it the same ratio as mythics to set size as rivals is.
    I totally agree. Ixalan has strange drop rates even when compared to other large sets. Even though I opened quite a few boosters thanks to across Ixalan, I only have very few rares. So few that ixalan is the only set for which I have more mythics than rares. This is only due to elite packs and not because I got very lucky
  • Matthew
    Matthew Posts: 605 Critical Contributor
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    I haven't seen anyone say it, so I'll be that guy:

    They're doing it to entice people to spend more on Rivals. Higher drop rates makes you think to yourself "Hmmm, I really want a new mythic. RIX has awesome drop rates, so I'll go there. No big deal that it costs 20 crystals more than literally any other PP."

    Then you spend your 6.6% extra crystals on that set. And maybe do it a few more times. And before you realize it, you're wondering why your crystal reserves are low. Suddenly, spending money to get more crystals doesn't look like that terrible of an idea. And bam, they've got you.
  • khurram
    khurram Posts: 1,078 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Matthew said:
    I haven't seen anyone say it, so I'll be that guy:

    They're doing it to entice people to spend more on Rivals. Higher drop rates makes you think to yourself "Hmmm, I really want a new mythic. RIX has awesome drop rates, so I'll go there. No big deal that it costs 20 crystals more than literally any other PP."

    Then you spend your 6.6% extra crystals on that set. And maybe do it a few more times. And before you realize it, you're wondering why your crystal reserves are low. Suddenly, spending money to get more crystals doesn't look like that terrible of an idea. And bam, they've got you.
    Drop rates for Ixalan were still the worst even when it was the newest set.
  • gogol666
    gogol666 Posts: 316 Mover and Shaker
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    Any update on that? I'm hoarding ixalan boosters hoping the drop rates will be aligned with those of the other sets. Please, make opening ixalan boosters worthy
  • FindingHeart8
    FindingHeart8 Posts: 2,730 Chairperson of the Boards
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    gogol666 said:
    Any update on that? I'm hoarding ixalan boosters hoping the drop rates will be aligned with those of the other sets. Please, make opening ixalan boosters worthy
    would those packs get swapped over to any new drop rates or would they be grandfathered in with the old?
  • Mburn7
    Mburn7 Posts: 3,427 Chairperson of the Boards
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    FindingHeart8 said:
    gogol666 said:
    Any update on that? I'm hoarding ixalan boosters hoping the drop rates will be aligned with those of the other sets. Please, make opening ixalan boosters worthy
    would those packs get swapped over to any new drop rates or would they be grandfathered in with the old?
    It used to be they would get the new, but the last few releases saw hoarded packs getting grandfathered in.  So, 50/50
  • FindingHeart8
    FindingHeart8 Posts: 2,730 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Mburn7 said:
    FindingHeart8 said:
    gogol666 said:
    Any update on that? I'm hoarding ixalan boosters hoping the drop rates will be aligned with those of the other sets. Please, make opening ixalan boosters worthy
    would those packs get swapped over to any new drop rates or would they be grandfathered in with the old?
    It used to be they would get the new, but the last few releases saw hoarded packs getting grandfathered in.  So, 50/50
    that would be a tragic irony to hold onto those packs for so long in hopes of better percentages only to find out it was never going to happen.

    but I could see an argument being made: "It's not fair that you get better loot for the same packs that I earned!"

    though I guess the counterargument would be: "Well, the trade off is you got to open your packs early and use those cards.  So my payoff for waiting is I get a better chance at the good loot."

    but the counterargument to that counterargument would be: "What good stuff?  The pack rates were so horrible all I got was dupes!"

    It's tricky.
  • gogol666
    gogol666 Posts: 316 Mover and Shaker
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    I will be happy if the drop rates increase even if my hoarded packs will stay the same. I just feel bad when I open an ixalan booster knowing that will be just common and uncommon for other 40 times in a row (I didn't do the math)
  • Mojo
    Mojo Posts: 44 Just Dropped In
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    Just hoard them.  I have not and the results have been abysmal.  As long as this event has been going on I have got the Ixalan basic packs.  Can't remember any rares or mythics ever so the logic of you got to use the cards is touhht to apply.
  • Gabrosin
    Gabrosin Posts: 259 Mover and Shaker
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    Ixalan drop rates are low because the devs are giving out a "free" XLN pack almost every day in the Across Ixalan event.  At platinum level the event is pure profit and you don't really need to think about whether to play it, so long as you have the time to win 3-5 matches.

    It does get frustrating to continually open junk from that pack though.  Would be nice if there were a higher drop rate, cuz there is basically no reason to purchase XLN packs compared to other options.
  • gogol666
    gogol666 Posts: 316 Mover and Shaker
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    I don't buy this argument: even though you can get one free booster per day, if you want to have some serious ixalan cards you have to buy premium packs and the drop rates of premium packs are as abysmal as those of the single boosters.
    Please, d3 increase the Ixalan drop rates
  • DumasAG
    DumasAG Posts: 719 Critical Contributor
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    Coming back to this thread...

    Having played Across Ixalan basically daily since it was available, and having purchased roughly 6-8 premium packs for each of IXL, RIX, and DOM:

    IXL Rares - 27 (out of 40) - 67.5%
    IXL Mythics - 2 (out of 26) - 7.7%

    RIX Rares - 21 (out of 21) - 100% (disclaimer: I booster crafted 5 of these rares looking for Storm the Vault, so actual percentage of opened rares is 75.2%)
    RIX Mythics - 7 (out of 17) - 41.2%

    DOM Rares - 25 (out of 41) - 60.1%
    DOM Mythics - 6 (out of 26) - 23.1%

    Of those mythics, 1 IXL mythic and 1 RIX mythic were purchased from elite packs (1 MP from IXL, 2 MP from RIX, 1 MP from DOM elite packs). So despite IXL being out the longest, and seeing AT LEAST 1 pack daily, and despite having not purchased significantly more of anything else, I have about the same amount of rares as the next two sets, and SIGNIFICANTLY less mythics (I actually opened a third IXL mythic, but it was a dupe).

    In summary, the drop rate for IXL is utter rubbish and something needs to be done. I vote that RtO have a "bonus mythic pack" like the journeys through history do for DOM rares. 
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    DumasAG said:

    In summary, the drop rate for IXL is utter rubbish and something needs to be done. I vote that RtO have a "bonus mythic pack" like the journeys through history do for DOM rares. 
    XLN drop rates were initially fine (1.26%; this is the expected mythic drop rate per card in normal packs), but you are correct in that for the majority of the time XLN has been available, drop rates were indeed rubbish (0.57%).

    If you combine that with the fact that RIX drop rates were initially great (1.95%) and are now good (1.43%), and DOM drop rates have only ever been good (1.54%), your owned mythics per set aren't a huge surprise.

    Note however that something's already been done about XLN; drop rates have been decent again (1.25%) since the DOM release.  So your XLN collection is likely to improve at a better rate than before, if you keep opening packs regularly.

    These quoted numbers are according to the published drop rates, and they're also reflected in the pack opening data that we have in the community spreadsheet (though at the per-set, per-version level there's not a huge amount of data).  And as always, individual luck will still vary of course.
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