Discrepancy between cover pack odds shown in rewards screen and store

jamesh

There are two ways in the game to view the odds for a particular cover pack in game at the moment:

1. click the question mark icon on the store page
2. click on the pack in the event rewards screen

For the latest two versus tournaments, these two methods present different odds:

	Store	Rewards
4* odds:	1:14	1:16
3* odds:	1:4	1:5

Which one of these is correct?  Or do tokens gained as a reward really have lower odds compared to those bought with HP?

Pongie

Single pulls shouldn't be different, but the 10 packs and 40 packs have better odds

Pants1000

I’ve never noticed it before, but now that you say it, the same discrepancy is there on heroic tokens.

So are the odds displayed from the store page actually for 10 or 40 packs?  If so that’s a bit misleading.

jamesh

Pongie said:

Single pulls shouldn't be different, but the 10 packs and 40 packs have better odds

Really?  I can see that those packs have better bonus hero odds, but I can't see anything that would indicate they would have different odds for non-bonus pulls.

madoctor

I checked what you are saying and indeed it's very weird.

The store page says better odds for buying and the from the PvP rewards screen page it says lower odds for 3*/4*. The rewards screen page also doesn't show odds for 10/40 packs since they can't be earned from anywhere, can only be bought. Interesting.

Talus9952

Good find.  Another example of D3 odds not really being reliable.  So which one is correct?  Who knows.  The fact that they show 2 different odds says they aren't treated the same, and pointing to different values for their odds, when they should be one and the same. 

@Brigby Please have the devs fix this.

BearVenger

Are they factoring the Bonus Heroes odds into the purchase screens?

jamesh

BearVenger said:

Are they factoring the Bonus Heroes odds into the purchase screens?

That sounds like it might actually explain it.

If we assume that the odds shown on the rewards page are accurate for when you don't pull a bonus hero, then the real odds will be higher because you'll never get a 2* character with a bonus hero pull.

On that basis, we can calculate the odds when 1:20 bonus hero odds are factored back in:

>>> legendary = 1/16
>>> rare = 1/5
>>> 19/20 * legendary + 1/20 * legendary / (legendary + rare)
0.0712797619047619
>>> 1 / _
14.029227557411275
>>> 19/20 * rare + 1/20 * rare / (legendary + rare)
0.2280952380952381
>>> 1 / _
4.384133611691023

Or 1:14 for a 4* character, and 1:4.4 for a 3*.  It would be good to get confirmation of whether this is actually what's going on or not though.

Dayv

[Moved to Bugs and Technical Questions]

jamesh

The Hearts of Darkness token odds also show a discrepancy:

	Store	Rewards
4* odds:	1:17	1:19
3* odds:	1:4	1:4

If we assume the rewards screen are showing odds given no bonus hero, then they'd convert to real odds of 1:17 and 1:3.6 respectively.  They mostly line up, but there's probably quite a big rounding error in the stated 3* odds in one location.

It'd be really nice to find out which one is correct.

Brigby

Hi Everyone. Thanks for the heads up! I've passed this on to the development team, and they'll take a look into it.