I don't have that many mythics

Shiser
Shiser Posts: 45 Just Dropped In
edited May 2017 in MtGPQ General Discussion
I have around 30 of them. Less than 20%. Of the 6 guaranteed mythics I've bought from the vault, somehow 5 have been duplicates. But for some reason you inflated the price of guaranteed mythics from crystals to 200 gems. 
It's becoming increasingly clear that you, or more likely your evil overlords, have no intention of making this game more accessible for f2p players. I've lost over half my clan in the past 6 weeks, and I'm pretty sure I'm done too. 
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Edit: thanks for clarifications
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Comments

  • DumasAG
    DumasAG Posts: 719 Critical Contributor
    when did they say they wanted to make it more accessible for f2p? I thought the overwhelming consensus was the opposite...
  • Delnai
    Delnai Posts: 187 Tile Toppler
    We used to be able to get a guaranteed mythic for 150 crystals? I only ever remember 350. Though that's still a much better deal than 200 jewels. 
  • Thuran
    Thuran Posts: 456 Mover and Shaker
    wasn't the legendary mythic 650 gems or something like that? 
  • hawkyh1
    hawkyh1 Posts: 780 Critical Contributor
    edited May 2017
    350 crystals for random most mythics pool, exclusives not included.
    550 crystals for legendary creatures mythic pool consisting of 15
    mythics.

    HH
  • Shiser
    Shiser Posts: 45 Just Dropped In
    DumasAG said:
    when did they say they wanted to make it more accessible for f2p? I thought the overwhelming consensus was the opposite...
    They didn't overtly say that, though as has been discussed many times in these forums, the f2p players are a vital component of keeping their premium players happy. 
    But they've also definitely made insinuations that stuff like the mana gems being available as prizes were to make it accessible to everyone. They could have kept gems as a purchase-only currency, like many other games do.
  • Tilwin90
    Tilwin90 Posts: 662 Critical Contributor
    edited May 2017
    Duplicates are a serious issue. If it were purely random I wouldn't have run into the following issues:
    - Four Giselas opened while I still lack a very good portion of mythics from SOI.
    - Hixus dropped like three times, with many Origins mythics missing.
    - Electrostatic Pummeler dropped like 8 or 9 times. Very close it's the other white creature rares from Kaladesh (with cost 16-17) at 6, respectively 5 times.
    - Two Brunas in the same 5x pack with no other rares or mythics appearing. (both dupes of course)
    - Many times running into duplicates in the same free pack (with such a huge card pool I should start making a statistic as to how unlikely this is statistically...)

    It's very very hard to believe that all these coincidences are purely random. Either they are on purpose or there is a serious skew in the PRNG algorithm preventing a uniform distribution of the cards.
    And don't give me the "bad experiences are more memorable than good experiences" garbage cause I'm not buying that. The SAME dupes over and over again in four 5x Kaladesh packs is absurd!
  • Gunmix25
    Gunmix25 Posts: 1,442 Chairperson of the Boards
    Tilwin90 said:
    Duplicates are a serious issue. If it were purely random I wouldn't have run into the following issues:
    - Four Giselas opened while I still lack a very good portion of mythics from SOI.
    - Hixus dropped like three times, with many Origins mythics missing.
    - Electrostatic Pummeler dropped like 8 or 9 times. Very close it's the other white creature rares from Kaladesh (with cost 16-17) at 6, respectively 5 times.
    - Two Brunas in the same 5x pack with no other rares or mythics appearing. (both dupes of course)
    - Many times running into duplicates in the same free pack (with such a huge card pool I should start making a statistic as to how unlikely this is statistically...)

    It's very very hard to believe that all these coincidences are purely random. Either they are on purpose or there is a serious skew in the PRNG algorithm preventing a uniform distribution of the cards.
    And don't give me the "bad experiences are more memorable than good experiences" garbage cause I'm not buying that. The SAME dupes over and over again in four 5x Kaladesh packs is absurd!
    I completely agree.  If D3 was a slot casino,  the payouts would shut the place down. The odds of back to back duplicates, especially back to back  triplicate draws in this latest run of mythic packs would astronomical if the algorithm was working correctly. Say a triple reel slot machine has about 9 to 12 shapes; try getting a triple from that. Is almost impossible,  yet it can occur, but nowhere near the scale experienced by players last weekend buying mythic packs back to back and that is from a pool of 137 mythics if I have my count correct.  Something isn't right here.  
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Tilwin90 said:
    If it were purely random I wouldn't have run into the following issues:
    - Four Giselas opened while I still lack a very good portion of mythics from SOI.
    What do you mean by "a very good portion"?  Assuming uniform drops, the chance of reaching 4x of one SOI mythic if you're missing half (10) of the SOI mythics is 20%.  (If you post your actual number missing for this and the next stat I can give a directly relevant figure.)
    - Hixus dropped like three times, with many Origins mythics missing.
    You're odds-on likely, at 60%, to reach 3x of one ORI mythic while still missing half (12) of the ORI mythics.  If you're missing 15 of the mythics, it's 31%.
    - Electrostatic Pummeler dropped like 8 or 9 times. Very close it's the other white creature rares from Kaladesh (with cost 16-17) at 6, respectively 5 times.
    With more info about collection size, some relevant stats could be given, but obviously, 100% of players will open some rare 9 times if they open enough rares.
    - Two Brunas in the same 5x pack with no other rares or mythics appearing. (both dupes of course)
    Of all your stats, this is the most unexpected: given a 5x SOI/EMN pack with 2+ rares, the chance of a dupe rare from that pack is around 2%.  But this is an overly-specific stat. For example, if it'd happened in a different booster you'd still be posting it as a rare event, but to get the chance of it happening from any booster type we'd have to (roughly) multiply by the number of booster types.
    - Many times running into duplicates in the same free pack (with such a huge card pool I should start making a statistic as to how unlikely this is statistically...)
    Over the course of a year, opening 2 basic boosters a day, randomness is expected to give you five 3-card packs with a dupe (for the current card sets).
    It's very very hard to believe that all these coincidences are purely random.
    Without following the stats through, I can agree a list of occurrences like this may seem deeply improbable.  But once you crunch the numbers, in this case as in many cases, it's not hard to believe at all.  None of the events you've described are especially rare; some may even be actively likely, depending on your collection.  (Stats is possibly at the top of the list of things human intuition is just innately bad at, so there's no shame in intuiting a wrong conclusion without having run the numbers.)

    Note that it wouldn't be a useful measure of improbability to multiply all of these odds together for a total probability of all of these things happening; this would be another overly-specific stat.  Every player can find 5 stats which for them are unlikely, out of hundreds of possible stats that could be measured, but the combined odds of those 5 cherry-picked things are quite meaningless.

  • bk1234
    bk1234 Posts: 2,924 Chairperson of the Boards
    Duplicates are only an issue for me when I get dupes of cards I paid for. I've pulled 3 Olivia and 2 Gisela. I paid for both of these. I now see no point (Not. Another. Dime. aside) in giving money to this game for exclusive cards as I know I will pull them anyway. They've basically devalued their own revenue generator. If you pay for a card you should be able to return the duplicate for another random pull. I don't mind getting dupes from free packs as that's how RNG works - but when it hits my wallet I get mad. 
  • Laeuftbeidir
    Laeuftbeidir Posts: 1,841 Chairperson of the Boards
    @volrak thanks for the math, I was actually about doing the exact same calculations.. Glad I saw your response in time..
    @tilwin90 Fact is, and will always be : humans are really, really bad when it comes to perception of probabilities.
    I actually calculated the gini coefficient (a way to calculate the degree of distribution) of my rare cards and dupes - because it felt uneven. It isn't. 
    The fact that you pulled the same rare two times out of a booster - well, the chances are very low, but if you multiply the chances for that with the numbers of packs opened by all players, it is to be expected to happen every now and then. 

    If you give me the exact numbers of your collection I can give you further calculations on that, since I did it for myself it's not even a lot of work ;)

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