You Don't Want to Whale Classics

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Comments

  • Polares
    Polares Posts: 2,643 Chairperson of the Boards
    Buret0 wrote:
    They need a rotating classic pack.

    New Legendary - 25 CP - 5% odds on each of the latest.
    Revolving Classic Legendary - 25 CP - 5% odds on getting one of three revolving 5*s.
    Classic Legendary - 20 CP - 15% odds on getting any of the 5*s

    If you pull a 4*, you should get a 3 CP bonus/refund.

    Yeah we really need this Rotating Classic Legendary token where every season a we exchange one of the 5s with some of the old ones (not present in latest).

    I just know that after champing my third classic, when Cap and IM were still in latest. I tried to champ another one for months without any success, GG was very close but everytime there were more chars in classic. I was tired of it and I decided to go Latest token (champing all 3s in the process, and getting some LTs from Vaults when new chars were presented). Right now I have 6 champed 5s, I managed to champ in around 3-4 months BBolt, BW, and Strange. My Thanos is now quite covered so I am going to continue to do the same thing until Devs do something else. I know I will never max Spidey or IM46 (or the other ones), I will probably buy the last cover for GG even though I might try to pull the cover once I champ Thanos, I am still undecided, 720 CPs is really a crazy price for a cover.

    Hendross please (or anyone else), what are the chances now of getting a cover for any two colors (4/5/3 build) for a particular 5 in classic with 720 CPs ? (Is this information anywhere?)

    Is it this? (0.9886666700^36.00000000)/(1.00^36) = 0.66343

    which comes from this (( 1.0 - (0.017 * 2 / 3)) ^ 36.00000000) / (1.00 ^ 36) the chance of not pulling it isn't it? So 66% chance of NOT pulling it or basically 1/3 chance of pulling it.

    And If you need one color in particular (5/2/5 build) ?

    Then: (( 1.0 - (0.017 / 3)) ^ 36.00000000) / (1.00 ^ 36) = 0.81498 or 18% chance of pulling the cover you want

    Is this math correct?
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    Polares wrote:
    Buret0 wrote:
    They need a rotating classic pack.

    Hendross please (or anyone else), what are the chances now of getting a cover for any two colors (4/5/3 build) for a particular 5 in classic with 720 CPs ? (Is this information anywhere?)

    Is it this? (0.9886666700^36.00000000)/(1.00^36) = 0.66343

    which comes from this (( 1.0 - (0.017 * 2 / 3)) ^ 36.00000000) / (1.00 ^ 36) the chance of not pulling it isn't it? So 66% chance of NOT pulling it or basically 1/3 chance of pulling it.

    And If you need one color in particular (5/2/5 build) ?

    Then: (( 1.0 - (0.017 / 3)) ^ 36.00000000) / (1.00 ^ 36) = 0.81498 or 18% chance of pulling the cover you want

    Is this math correct?

    A single character & color pull rate is 1/3 of the listed rate (1.7% which is actually 1.666...) ~ 0.56% or 1-in-176
    Sorry, if you want OML-Yellow... that's enough CP (3520 or 140 LLT) to max a featured character vault (10%).
  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    Hendross wrote:
    Polares wrote:
    Buret0 wrote:
    They need a rotating classic pack.

    Hendross please (or anyone else), what are the chances now of getting a cover for any two colors (4/5/3 build) for a particular 5 in classic with 720 CPs ? (Is this information anywhere?)

    Is it this? (0.9886666700^36.00000000)/(1.00^36) = 0.66343

    which comes from this (( 1.0 - (0.017 * 2 / 3)) ^ 36.00000000) / (1.00 ^ 36) the chance of not pulling it isn't it? So 66% chance of NOT pulling it or basically 1/3 chance of pulling it.

    And If you need one color in particular (5/2/5 build) ?

    Then: (( 1.0 - (0.017 / 3)) ^ 36.00000000) / (1.00 ^ 36) = 0.81498 or 18% chance of pulling the cover you want

    Is this math correct?

    A single character & color pull rate is 1/3 of the listed rate (1.7% which is actually 1.666...) ~ 0.56% or 1-in-176
    Sorry, if you want OML-Yellow... that's enough CP (3520 or 140 LLT) to max a featured character vault (10%).
    ... my 2/6/7 Phoenix just killed herself and had OML match her CD tile away.
  • SnowcaTT
    SnowcaTT Posts: 3,486 Chairperson of the Boards
    From roster report thread, my 5*'s followed in parenthesis by additions from big CP hoard/pulls three and one season ago

    Phoenix 458 (+3/+2. Yep, same as past history, this is the character I get, and no other.)
    SS: 5/1/5 (+1/+1....and +1/+1 to 2nd copy of SS....)
    BSSM 3/2/3 (+1/+1)
    OML 3/2/3 (+1/+1)
    Cap 3/4/1 (+3/+2)
    IM 4/3/2 (+0/+2)
    (Newer ones covered less)

    I wrote about that three seasons ago:
    Lots of added covers...mostly middling actual progress.

    I still feel the same way. I got lucky with a champ early on, but the dillution of covers in classics has really slowed any meaningful progress - all of these are pretty worthless to level or try to use.

    Even worse is the colored aspect of covers. Have a "trophy" Phoenix cover rostered. Have a "trophy" 2/0/1 SS rostered. With a 1/5/0 GG rostered and that as my next 5* daily drop, I'll soon have a "trophy" 0/1/0 GG rostered.

    NOTHING in the game is worse than RNG-only progression, and colored covers only amplify that.
  • Polares
    Polares Posts: 2,643 Chairperson of the Boards
    Hendross wrote:
    Polares wrote:
    Buret0 wrote:
    They need a rotating classic pack.

    Hendross please (or anyone else), what are the chances now of getting a cover for any two colors (4/5/3 build) for a particular 5 in classic with 720 CPs ? (Is this information anywhere?)

    Is it this? (0.9886666700^36.00000000)/(1.00^36) = 0.66343

    which comes from this (( 1.0 - (0.017 * 2 / 3)) ^ 36.00000000) / (1.00 ^ 36) the chance of not pulling it isn't it? So 66% chance of NOT pulling it or basically 1/3 chance of pulling it.

    And If you need one color in particular (5/2/5 build) ?

    Then: (( 1.0 - (0.017 / 3)) ^ 36.00000000) / (1.00 ^ 36) = 0.81498 or 18% chance of pulling the cover you want

    Is this math correct?

    A single character & color pull rate is 1/3 of the listed rate (1.7% which is actually 1.666...) ~ 0.56% or 1-in-176
    Sorry, if you want OML-Yellow... that's enough CP (3520 or 140 LLT) to max a featured character vault (10%).

    Mmm that is not what I asked icon_razz.gif

    The questions is, imagine someone has a 4/5/3 GG, and has 720CP saved. He can just buy the last cover straight away or he can pull 36 tokens and hope he will pull one black or one yellow cover, but not a purple. What should he do?

    With my math, I basically tried to calculate the chance of not pulling two particular covers in 36 pulls, but I am not sure I did it correctly.

    If they are correct, my calculations show that if you need two different colors to max a 5 in classic when he is 12 covers, if you use the 720CPs to pull 36 tokens you have 33% chance of pulling one cover of the two colors you need. If you need a particular color (5/2/5 build) then the chances are just a 18%, which is not a very good ratio.

    As someone else said in another thread, it is starting to be much better to buy the cover (and lose all the other 35pulls), than trying your luck and opening the 36 tokens, specially if you need just one color to max the char.
  • alphabeta
    alphabeta Posts: 469 Mover and Shaker
    Polares wrote:
    Hendross wrote:
    Polares wrote:
    Buret0 wrote:
    They need a rotating classic pack.

    Hendross please (or anyone else), what are the chances now of getting a cover for any two colors (4/5/3 build) for a particular 5 in classic with 720 CPs ? (Is this information anywhere?)

    Is it this? (0.9886666700^36.00000000)/(1.00^36) = 0.66343

    which comes from this (( 1.0 - (0.017 * 2 / 3)) ^ 36.00000000) / (1.00 ^ 36) the chance of not pulling it isn't it? So 66% chance of NOT pulling it or basically 1/3 chance of pulling it.

    And If you need one color in particular (5/2/5 build) ?

    Then: (( 1.0 - (0.017 / 3)) ^ 36.00000000) / (1.00 ^ 36) = 0.81498 or 18% chance of pulling the cover you want

    Is this math correct?

    A single character & color pull rate is 1/3 of the listed rate (1.7% which is actually 1.666...) ~ 0.56% or 1-in-176
    Sorry, if you want OML-Yellow... that's enough CP (3520 or 140 LLT) to max a featured character vault (10%).

    Mmm that is not what I asked icon_razz.gif

    The questions is, imagine someone has a 4/5/3 GG, and has 720CP saved. He can just buy the last cover straight away or he can pull 36 tokens and hope he will pull one black or one yellow cover, but not a purple. What should he do?

    With my math, I basically tried to calculate the chance of not pulling two particular covers in 36 pulls, but I am not sure I did it correctly.

    If they are correct, my calculations show that if you need two different colors to max a 5 in classic when he is 12 covers, if you use the 720CPs to pull 36 tokens you have 33% chance of pulling one cover of the two colors you need. If you need a particular color (5/2/5 build) then the chances are just a 18%, which is not a very good ratio.

    As someone else said in another thread, it is starting to be much better to buy the cover (and lose all the other 35pulls), than trying your luck and opening the 36 tokens, specially if you need just one color to max the char.

    Where you have a single colour maxed its the inverse of what Hendross said you have a 0.56% chance of pulling a specific colour in a specific 5* cover so if you could pull 2 and either would help than you chances of success are 1.12% (0.56% x 2).

    With 720 CP saved you could have 36 pulls trying to do something that statistically should happen approximately 1 in 90 pulls if you got published odds.

    So you have certainty (buy buying) vs likely failure but potential to beat published odds and get multiple covers (by spending the 720 cp on classics). Maths says you buy but everyone has to make there own decisions there - gamblers* will by tokens and some will win, non gamblers* will buy the cover.

    (*using gamblers as a generic attitude to risk term)
  • Kjempen
    Kjempen Posts: 117 Tile Toppler
    So this means that once you get to the point where most of your interesting/usable 4-stars are championed, there's no real reason to expect any more progress unless you save all CP/legendary tokens for over half a year to cash them all in on Latest Legendary tokens. If you fail to hoard (for example you cash in before), you might end up with a 5* you will most likely never manage to fully cover... "Nice"!
  • RemoDestroyer
    RemoDestroyer Posts: 277 Mover and Shaker
    Given the current odds and my current roster would pulling from latest or classic be my most likely path to championing my 1st 5*? I average about 1 or 1.5 lt a day.

    I recently gave up on classics after pulling 5 covers I had to sell. Do I stay with latest or go back to classics? I have 25 championed 4*s. At the moment of the 126 possible 4* covers in tokens there are only 25 I can't use to train or add a level so my chances of any 4* being useful are pretty good.

    Current 5*s:
    Phoenix 5/3/4
    Silver Surfer 2/5/5
    Wolverine 5/5/0
    Green Goblin 4/2/3
    Banner 2/3/4
    Iron Man 5/2/1
    Spider-Man 4/0/2
    Black Widow 2/3/1
    Black Bolt 2/1/2
    Steve Rogers 1/2/2
    Doctor Strange 2/2/1
    Thanos 2/1/1

    I know it's possible I could get the covers I need for Phoenix or Silver Surfer on my next pull but I also feel like it's extremely unlikely.
  • Ludaa
    Ludaa Posts: 542
    Given the current odds and my current roster would pulling from latest or classic be my most likely path to championing my 1st 5*? I average about 1 or 1.5 lt a day.

    I recently gave up on classics after pulling 5 covers I had to sell. Do I stay with latest or go back to classics? I have 25 championed 4*s. At the moment of the 126 possible 4* covers in tokens there are only 25 I can't use to train or add a level so my chances of any 4* being useful are pretty good.

    Current 5*s:
    Phoenix 5/3/4
    Silver Surfer 2/5/5
    Wolverine 5/5/0
    Green Goblin 4/2/3
    Banner 2/3/4
    Iron Man 5/2/1
    Spider-Man 4/0/2
    Black Widow 2/3/1
    Black Bolt 2/1/2
    Steve Rogers 1/2/2
    Doctor Strange 2/2/1
    Thanos 2/1/1

    I know it's possible I could get the covers I need for Phoenix or Silver Surfer on my next pull but I also feel like it's extremely unlikely.

    Either save up and buy the last Phoenix, or hoard for an all out Latest pull in my opinion. If you go with Phoenix, though, I think it's likely she'll get very few champ levels with the system in place. You could be facing a new MMR of players that now have 460+ 5's. With a big run at Latest you can potentially start more than one of them over 450 and keep growing them consistently while they're there.
  • Polares
    Polares Posts: 2,643 Chairperson of the Boards
    Given the current odds and my current roster would pulling from latest or classic be my most likely path to championing my 1st 5*? I average about 1 or 1.5 lt a day.

    I recently gave up on classics after pulling 5 covers I had to sell. Do I stay with latest or go back to classics? I have 25 championed 4*s. At the moment of the 126 possible 4* covers in tokens there are only 25 I can't use to train or add a level so my chances of any 4* being useful are pretty good.

    Current 5*s:
    Phoenix 5/3/4
    Silver Surfer 2/5/5
    Wolverine 5/5/0
    Green Goblin 4/2/3
    Banner 2/3/4
    Iron Man 5/2/1
    Spider-Man 4/0/2
    Black Widow 2/3/1
    Black Bolt 2/1/2
    Steve Rogers 1/2/2
    Doctor Strange 2/2/1
    Thanos 2/1/1

    I know it's possible I could get the covers I need for Phoenix or Silver Surfer on my next pull but I also feel like it's extremely unlikely.

    Well this is exactly why I was making my post/question.

    As I said, if you save 720CP, you have close to 33% chance of pulling one of the two PH covers you need if you use these 720CPs to do 36 pulls. Just 18% of pulling the SS cover you need. Those are not very good chances (even though your chances of pulling either PH or SS cover are a bit better). And you have a lot of chars at 5 so you most probably will pull one of those. You will obviously get a lot of champion levels for your 4s if you open the tokens, so it is hard to recommend to spend the 720CPs in just one cover :S

    But yeah, your best options are probably to buy the PH cover or save and go full Latest when you have the 170 pulls 'required' to champ at least one char.

    PS: I am debating myself, about buying my last GG cover, but my situation is quite different, as I already have 6 champed 5s