You Don't Want to Whale Classics

Hendross
Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
edited January 2017 in MPQ General Discussion
Since Black Bolt has moved to classics, making 9 total. In an attempt to continue to highlight the dilution problem, I performed a 10,000 player simulation, with 9 classics, no customer service assistance, starting with zero covers.

9_classics_zpsijlrxq72.jpg
95% chance you finish 1 Classic with 590 pulls

Basic Stats 
Minimum: 167
Average: 556
Maximum: 941
Minimum 5-Star Covers Sold = 0
Average 5-Star Covers Sold = 4
Maximum 5-Star Covers Sold = 30

Sample Run 
Number of Legendary Tokens: 582
Number of 4 Star Covers: 504 (86.6%)
Number of 5 Star Covers: 78 (13.4%)
Number of 5 Star Covers Sold: 2 (2.56%)

Green Goblin    [1/4/3] [8]
Iron Man        [2/4/2] [8]
Phoenix         [2/5/3] [10]
Silver Surfer   [5/2/1] [8]
Spider-Man      [5/1/1] [7]
Captain America [3/3/4] [10]
Hulk            [3/5/5] [13]
Old Man Logan   [1/0/2] [3]
Black Bolt      [5/2/2] [9]

TL;DR: 556 Tokens. ****!? Don't do this.
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Comments

  • blargrx
    blargrx Posts: 150 Tile Toppler
    Insane! I've been saving towards 300 LT but with the pull rates, 5* MMR, lack of roster variety... I'm actually contemplating just whaling danvers instead of trying to jump into 5 land

    149/300 LT pulls
  • mpqr7
    mpqr7 Posts: 2,642 Chairperson of the Boards
    I'm just pulling one at a time, hoping for the best. I've given up on every winning the OML Yellow or PH Green of my dreams. It will happen when it happens.

    My 5* collection is a pretty clear function of average over time.
    5*s Covers 75 total
    OML 5..1..5 11
    SS 5..1..5 11
    Ph 1..4..5 10
    Cap 2..4..3 9
    IM 5..2..2 9
    BSS 2..3..1 6
    BW 0..3..2 5
    Bruce 1..2..2 5
    GG 1..2..2 5
    Black Bolt 1..1..0 2
    Dr. Strange 0..0..1 1
    Thanos 0..1..0 1
  • Jarvind
    Jarvind Posts: 1,684 Chairperson of the Boards
    I've got a 12-cover OML, 11-cover Phoenix and 10-cover Black Suit. I feel like I'm stuck pulling Classics until at least those get finished. icon_e_confused.gif
  • Mr_Sinister
    Mr_Sinister Posts: 356 Mover and Shaker
    Maybe a 100CP 5* only draw is in order? Keep it locked until a certain SCL is reached to prevent newbs from jumping tiers?
  • Quibbles
    Quibbles Posts: 44 Just Dropped In
    Hendross,
    This is brilliant, but I think it may actually understate the problem a little bit, if that's possible. This is because the real way for a new player to whale is not to fully cover one 5*, but all of them so that they can be properly caught up. Otherwise, you're throwing away, as you note, 30 5* covers. So, could you run the numbers again to reflect what you need to do to fully cover all current 5*?

    I know it seems like overkill, but this is the issue I've raised to Customer Services' deaf ear already: this policy is asinine and ensures the death of the game. Why? Because the fact is that any game will lose some veteran players. But will it get new players to replace them? If you did not already have some champed 5* characters, you would be an idiot to start the 5* meta today. Because you'll get hammered on by people who can continue to stay ahead of the curve in a way you as a new player cannot.

    Thanks for the hard work--even those of us who have whaled multiple 5* champs appreciate that this is an unsustainable model and thank you for backing up the feeling with statistical analysis.

    Quibbles
  • Mr_Sinister
    Mr_Sinister Posts: 356 Mover and Shaker
    Jarvind wrote:
    I've got a 12-cover OML, 11-cover Phoenix and 10-cover Black Suit. I feel like I'm stuck pulling Classics until at least those get finished. icon_e_confused.gif

    you're better off buying OML and PH, and praying for 1-2 GG then buying him to max as well.
  • udonomefoo
    udonomefoo Posts: 1,630 Chairperson of the Boards
    My best 5* is a 2/4/2 Black Bolt. I wish I hadn't waited so long before starting to pull latest tokens. Now I don't know what to do.
  • Jarvind
    Jarvind Posts: 1,684 Chairperson of the Boards
    Mr_Sinister wrote:
    Jarvind wrote:
    I've got a 12-cover OML, 11-cover Phoenix and 10-cover Black Suit. I feel like I'm stuck pulling Classics until at least those get finished. icon_e_confused.gif

    you're better off buying OML and PH, and praying for 1-2 GG then buying him to max as well.

    I assume you meant BSS - my Goblin has 2 covers so I've long since given up on ever having him usable unless a better way of getting 5s is introduced.
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    mpqr7 wrote:
    I'm just pulling one at a time, hoping for the best. I've given up on every winning the OML Yellow or PH Green of my dreams. It will happen when it happens.

    I was doing the same thing, but I also ran my own numbers (not starting from zero) and it was ~120 classics to finish 1. The problem is 2-fold, I will sell more dupes and I can't get that many before the next new release ~30days.
  • JVReal
    JVReal Posts: 1,884 Chairperson of the Boards
    For FTP, my collection of 5's isn't bad, but not really functional.

    OML - 3/4/0 lvl 270 (I've given up hope of ever getting a Red cover)
    Dr. Strange - 2/1/2 lvl 270 (at least he can be used on some easy goon nodes)
    Jean Grey - 0/3/3 lvl 260 (I've given up hope of getting her Green cover)
    IMXtraLarge6 - 2/2/2 lvl 255 (best distribution of covers thus far)
    Black Bolt - 0/1/3 lvl 255 (haven't even bothered to try and read his abilities since it's irrelevant for a long time)
    Black Widow - 0/0/3 lvl 255 (This is how Logan started out with his yellow covers)
    Silver Surfer - 0/1/2 lvl 255 (for being the oldest one out there... I expected to have more... but still no Blue, the most useful cover for him at low levels)
    Steve Rogers - 0/2/0 lvl 255 (so excited for his re-balance... I was hardly using him before... but now... woohoo!)
    Green Goblin - 1/1/0 lvl 255 (I seem to be missing the best covers for these guys, would love to have him Fortify tiles)
    Spider-Man - 0/1/0 lvl 255 (haven't even read the powers honestly)
    The Hulk - 1/0/0 lvl 255 (again, it wasn't the Purple cover, so I really wasn't excited)

    I'm hoarding tokens and CP for a bit... but when I do use it, I usually purchase Classics since CP is precious to me. Of any 5*, I would just like to have at least 1 OML Red to make him a little bit more usable.
  • DaveR4470
    DaveR4470 Posts: 931 Critical Contributor
    For the first time in forever*, I pulled an OML cover from a classic yesterday!!!!!!!!!! ZOMG!!!!!

    ....


    ....

    It was black cover #4 for me. So my 4-0-0 Logan will stay in the garage twiddling his thumbs.

    Universal covers (aka build your character as you want to build it) can't come soon enough to this game.....


    *Totally intentional Frozen reference.
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    edited January 2017
    JVReal wrote:
    For FTP, my collection of 5's isn't bad, but not really functional.
    OML - 3/4/0 lvl 270 (I've given up hope of ever getting a Red cover)
    Dr. Strange - 2/1/2 lvl 270 (at least he can be used on some easy goon nodes)
    Jean Grey - 0/3/3 lvl 260 (I've given up hope of getting her Green cover)
    IMXtraLarge6 - 2/2/2 lvl 255 (best distribution of covers thus far)
    Black Bolt - 0/1/3 lvl 255 (haven't even bothered to try and read his abilities since it's irrelevant for a long time)
    Black Widow - 0/0/3 lvl 255 (This is how Logan started out with his yellow covers)
    Silver Surfer - 0/1/2 lvl 255 (for being the oldest one out there... I expected to have more... but still no Blue, the most useful cover for him at low levels)
    Steve Rogers - 0/2/0 lvl 255 (so excited for his re-balance... I was hardly using him before... but now... woohoo!)
    Green Goblin - 1/1/0 lvl 255 (I seem to be missing the best covers for these guys, would love to have him Fortify tiles)
    Spider-Man - 0/1/0 lvl 255 (haven't even read the powers honestly)
    The Hulk - 1/0/0 lvl 255 (again, it wasn't the Purple cover, so I really wasn't excited)
    I'm hoarding tokens and CP for a bit... but when I do use it, I usually purchase Classics since CP is precious to me. Of any 5*, I would just like to have at least 1 OML Red to make him a little bit more usable.

    Let me help you decide;
    1. MIN_TOKENS = 66
    2. AVG_TOKENS = 337
    3. MAX_TOKENS = 758
    4. MIN_5_SOLD = 0
    5. AVG_5_SOLD =4
    6. MAX_5_SOLD =34

    Sample Run 
    -Starting Position----------------------
Green Goblin    [1/1/0] [2]
Iron Man        [2/2/2] [6]
Phoenix         [0/3/3] [6]
Silver Surfer   [0/1/2] [3]
Spider-Man      [0/1/0] [1]
Captain America [0/2/0] [2]
Hulk            [1/0/0] [1]
Old Man Logan   [3/4/0] [7]
Black Bolt      [0/1/3] [4]

Number of Legendary Tokens: 450
Number of 4 Star Covers: 394 (87.56%)
Number of 5 Star Covers: 56 (12.44%)
Number of 5 Star Covers Sold: 8 (14.29%)

-Ending Position----------------------
Green Goblin    [3/5/1] [9]
Iron Man        [3/2/3] [8]
Phoenix         [4/4/5] [13]
Silver Surfer   [3/2/3] [8]
Spider-Man      [3/3/3] [9]
Captain America [2/4/2] [8]
Hulk            [2/2/1] [5]
Old Man Logan   [5/5/1] [11]
Black Bolt      [1/3/5] [9]
  • Square-Chopper
    Square-Chopper Posts: 54 Match Maker
    edited January 2017
    Since I gave up on pulling classics, I've managed to fully cover Banner(451), Black Bolt(465), Widow(455), and am at 11/13 on Strange. The only one that required help from CS was Bolt, the rest came naturally. I realize there was a fair bit of luck involved in this and YMMV, however the point remains: Classics are useless at this point for obtaining 5* characters.

    The sad truth is that if you didn't already cover your OML or Phoenix (etc.) before they moved to classics, then chances are you probably won't. Ever. It's a ridiculously poor design and it's even more ridiculous that nothing has been done to fix it yet.
  • Mr_Sinister
    Mr_Sinister Posts: 356 Mover and Shaker
    This thread needs to be attached the the top of the general board until the issue is given an official response.
  • pheregas
    pheregas Posts: 1,721 Chairperson of the Boards
    Keep in mind that if you do pull a bunch of dupe covers, customer service will not help you for Classics. They only help Latests. So if you are pulling that many classics, make sure you have a ton of iso laying around.
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    pheregas wrote:
    Keep in mind that if you do pull a bunch of dupe covers, customer service will not help you for Classics. They only help Latests. So if you are pulling that many classics, make sure you have a ton of iso laying around.

    44 4-Stars, 17.6M ISO should have you covered.
  • mpqr7
    mpqr7 Posts: 2,642 Chairperson of the Boards
    I know that I should hoard cp and LT, but I just can't handle waiting 6 or more months just to get a chance to champion a new Latest Legend.

    Also, I really want to be able to champion my old 5*s! I dream of the day I get to level my OML up past 420! It's been probably almost a year at this point, but it will happen! I swear!!!

    My Cap and IM are catching up... just 2 covers behind, somehow!!
  • HaywireII
    HaywireII Posts: 568 Critical Contributor
    I love the sample run. 582 tokens, only 3 OML and no yellow. I'm glad it's not just me and simulated players are also having the same issue.

    Number of Legendary Tokens: 582
    Number of 4 Star Covers: 504 (86.6%)
    Number of 5 Star Covers: 78 (13.4%)
    Number of 5 Star Covers Sold: 2 (2.56%)

    Green Goblin [1/4/3] [8]
    Iron Man [2/4/2] [8]
    Phoenix [2/5/3] [10]
    Silver Surfer [5/2/1] [8]
    Spider-Man [5/1/1] [7]
    Captain America [3/3/4] [10]
    Hulk [3/5/5] [13]
    Old Man Logan [1/0/2] [3]
    Black Bolt [5/2/2] [9]
  • mpqr7
    mpqr7 Posts: 2,642 Chairperson of the Boards
    HaywireII wrote:
    I love the sample run. 582 tokens, only 3 OML and no yellow. I'm glad it's not just me and simulated players are also having the same issue.

    Oof, I need an OML Yellow very, very badly. If I waited all that time and did 582 draws and still didn't get an OML Yellow, I'd be quite upset!!!

    So instead, I get to be upset one draw at a time, which is 1/528th as bad icon_cool.gif
  • broll
    broll Posts: 4,732 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited January 2017
    Square-Chopper wrote:
    Classics are completely useless at this point.

    This is an overstatement, not a huge one, but still an overstatement. Classics are still the best value for people who aren't knocking on the door to 5*, which I'd imagine is probably 90% of total player base. The 5 CP discount means 20% more chances to pull 4*s and/or 5* and for many people in that camp it's extremely unlikely that they ever pull an unusable 5*.

    That being said both 4* and 5* progression is far too locked behind an unforgiving RNG that get's longer every 2 weeks.

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