So You want to Whale Latest Legendaries

135

Comments

  • brollbroll Posts: 4,727 Chairperson of the Boards
    Are you gonna do the 10% without CS assistance?
  • HendrossHendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    broll wrote:
    Are you gonna do the 10% without CS assistance?

    Mean: 130 Pulls (+10 w/o Assistance)
    99.6% Confidence @ 150 (Same as with Assistant, give or take a little rounding)
  • AwebermanAweberman Posts: 242 Tile Toppler
    Hendross wrote:
    broll wrote:
    Are you gonna do the 10% without CS assistance?

    Mean: 130 Pulls (+10 w/o Assistance)
    99.6% Confidence @ 150 (Same as with Assistant, give or take a little rounding)
    So:

    1) Can we expect that new featured character stores are going to be a thing? We had them for Steve Rogers/Iron Man, but not for Bruce Banner or Black Bolt, but then had them again for Black Widow and Doctor Strange. So is this a thing or not? Or maybe the character has to be tied into a movie...

    2) IF new character stores are a thing going forward, it seems like it may still make more sense to whale the Latest Legends, if 300 pulls almost certainly covers all 3, since in the new character store 130 or so are required. I suppose this is in line with the concept of buying in bulk being cheaper in the long run.
  • PolaresPolares Posts: 2,490 Chairperson of the Boards
    Great work guys! Keep on rolling!

    Which soft/site do you use for the graphs? I used to visit one that was really good but now is closed and I don't want to download a soft just for this.

    So imagine you have a X cover Bbolt which is the formula you use to know the distribution to max that char in particular with X covers already

    Oh and this thread should be renamed I LOVE MATHS or WHY SHOULD YOU ALWAYS LEARN MATHS
  • HendrossHendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    Polares wrote:
    Great work guys! Keep on rolling!

    Which soft/site do you use for the graphs? I used to visit one that was really good but now is closed and I don't want to download a soft just for this.

    Unfortunately most (quality) software is pretty expensive. All the graphs to this point came from Minitab 17.
    Tableau is also gaining popularity (at my office atleast). We also have some SAS analytics (Enterprise Data Miner) which mortals can not afford, but the marketers love it.

    The best freeware I know of is R. https://www.r-project.org/
  • HadronicHadronic Posts: 338 Mover and Shaker
    Polares wrote:
    Great work guys! Keep on rolling!

    Which soft/site do you use for the graphs? I used to visit one that was really good but now is closed and I don't want to download a soft just for this.

    So imagine you have a X cover Bbolt which is the formula you use to know the distribution to max that char in particular with X covers already

    Oh and this thread should be renamed I LOVE MATHS or WHY SHOULD YOU ALWAYS LEARN MATHS


    Covering a specific character is a much simpler problem than what Hendross is doing since he is potentially covering 3 at a time.

    A specific character has 5% odds and therefore if you need X covers the average would be 20X. The std deviation would also increase as a function of X (don't know exact formula off top of my head).

    To get the PDF you can simply look up the poisson for the average of interest. Better yet someone could animate the 13 plots into a slideshow.

    Hendross can feel free to use his simulation to verify.
  • HadronicHadronic Posts: 338 Mover and Shaker
    Just to fulfill my own curiosity I did some back of the envelope calculations to convert the above info into dollars.

    260 tokens needed on average to champ all 3 latest legends at same time.
    That's 6500 cp
    Which is $4643 (assuming buy club rate of 140cp/$100)
    Or $1543 per character to champ on averge.

    If instead you wanted to max champ then 2260 tokens are needed.
    Or 56,500cp
    Which is $40,357
    Or $13,452 per 550 character on average.

    Currently all 11 characters at 550 would cost $147,976 to buy out of latest.

    These estimates are certainly on the low side since I'm guessing one doesn't always manage to get a perfect buy club everytime, and if you buy latest for a new character when you already have 1 or 2 of the other characters covered. Also this does not include buying ISO.
  • kingpaul69kingpaul69 Age Unconfirmed Posts: 7 Just Dropped In
    edited December 2016
    Hi Guys,

    Long time lurker, first time poster.

    Just done this exact thing, and inspired these discussions and the hoarders in general I've been saving for a while as I'd started to lose the will to live with Classic Tokens...

    Had managed to amass 80 Latest Legendary Tokens, 3972 Command Points (good for 158 pulls).

    I'm just listing the 5 stars as there were so many 4 stars.

    I started from a base of Bolt at 1/3/0, Widow at 1/0/0 and no Strange covers as he came out while I was hoarding and was unable to pull any of his tokens from his own tokens. I'd previously pulled from Classics with CP and LTs as I got them.

    Here are my results...

    80 Latest Legendary Tokens (17.5%)
    icon_blackwidow.pngpurpleflag.pngpurpleflag.pngpurpleflag.pngredflag.pngredflag.pngredflag.pngblackflag.png
    icon_blackbolt.pnggreenflag.pnggreenflag.pngyellowflag.png
    drstrange_icon.pngblueflag.pngblueflag.pngpurpleflag.pngpurpleflag.png

    154 Latest Legendary Tokens @25CP each (16.2% pulled less than max (see below))
    icon_blackwidow.pngredflag.pngredflag.pngredflag.pngblackflag.pngblackflag.png
    icon_blackbolt.pnggreenflag.pnggreenflag.pnggreenflag.pngblackflag.pngblackflag.pngblackflag.pngyellowflag.pngyellowflag.png
    drstrange_icon.pngblueflag.pngblueflag.pngblueflag.pngblueflag.pngblueflag.pngblueflag.pngblueflag.pngpurpleflag.pngpurpleflag.pngpurpleflag.pngyellowflag.pngyellowflag.png

    Combined Latest Legendary Tokens (39/234 = 16.6%)

    Result
    icon_blackwidow.png 4/5/3 (1 red in rewards)
    icon_blackbolt.png 5/5/3 (1 green and 1 black in rewards)
    drstrange_icon.png 5/5/2 (4 blue in rewards)

    Note: I stopped pulling when I got each character to 13 tokens and I've raised a support ticket to request the colours to be switched (Nat Red to Purple and Strange Blue to Yellow). I finished with 100 of my original CPs left and didn't have to rely on the LTs/CP earned from the 4 star covers (8 and 100 or so respectively). Over 15% pull rate on this amount of pulls has really worked to help get all there characters covered

    Plan is to start hoarding again until Thanos is about to drop out from the Latest Legendary Tokens, which should hopefully be a good few months away.

    As far as championing these guys are concerned I'm low on ISO as I was pushed into doing this pull a bit before I was ready by Thanos arriving and wanting to do this while Bolt was still available. I wanted to get closer to 250 pulls and 1 million ISO in the bank (currently 200k + 100k of 4 star covers) and ideally more champed 4 stars to decrease cover wastage (14 champs and a similar amount fully covered and needing covers.

    Bolt is the obvious choice as he is already at 13 covers and can get on with it while waiting for Customer Service to come back from their holiday break. However championing him now and not losing his 2 covers will mean sacrificing for example the 4 Pun Max and the 8! Bucky covers I received today. I should be able to champ one 5 star or two 4 stars in the next 2 weeks but probably not two 5 stars with my current ISO (currently 200k + 100k of 4 star covers) though double ISO for a few more days will help.

    Thanks for all the stats and work you guys have done on this which has hopefully helped me take a significant step forward in the game.

    I hope these results encourage others considering doing this that it can work if you get near to the advertised pull rate.

    UPDATE: While working on this post I accidentally caught the recruit button on my red Widow cover and it rostered it. Apparently this is bad news as far as getting the colours switched over by CS. I've raised a support ticket to remove it, however I'll update when I hear back from them probably in the new year.

    Gametag: pk69
    Alliance: xmenfive
  • PhumadePhumade Posts: 1,936 Chairperson of the Boards
    if worst comes to worst buy out a vault or 2 to flip your 2*. Nothing sucks worse than losing a 5* cover because you were short iso. but congrats!
  • PongiePongie Posts: 1,326 Chairperson of the Boards
    Hendross wrote:
    broll wrote:
    Are you gonna do the 10% without CS assistance?

    Mean: 130 Pulls (+10 w/o Assistance)
    99.6% Confidence @ 150 (Same as with Assistant, give or take a little rounding)

    After seeing this, I'm extremely tempted to blow my stash of 3100 command points on purple reign tokens. Only 124 pulls but it's close enough. The original plan was to hoard more and eventually brute force the classic token, hoping to finish oml before the 2nd black cover drops in daily resupply late next year. Or would a better option be to wait for thanos to be added to latest tokens? I do have 51 tokens saved up (so 175 pulls) but that's likely to net me one out of the three, and it won't be thanos. Too early to tell, but is thanos worth deviating from my original plan? I'm giving up the possibility to get more covers of other 5* just to focus purely on thanos.
  • LordXberkLordXberk Age Unconfirmed Posts: 252 Mover and Shaker
    Pongie wrote:
    Hendross wrote:
    broll wrote:
    Are you gonna do the 10% without CS assistance?

    Mean: 130 Pulls (+10 w/o Assistance)
    99.6% Confidence @ 150 (Same as with Assistant, give or take a little rounding)

    After seeing this, I'm extremely tempted to blow my stash of 3100 command points on purple reign tokens. Only 124 pulls but it's close enough. The original plan was to hoard more and eventually brute force the classic token, hoping to finish oml before the 2nd black cover drops in daily resupply late next year. Or would a better option be to wait for thanos to be added to latest tokens? I do have 51 tokens saved up (so 175 pulls) but that's likely to net me one out of the three, and it won't be thanos. Too early to tell, but is thanos worth deviating from my original plan? I'm giving up the possibility to get more covers of other 5* just to focus purely on thanos.

    In a similar situation as you Pongie and I think I'm waiting for Thano5 to be in the Latest tokens bcs I want a shot at covering 5trange. The thing is that I don't really care about 5* Widow, so I'm accepting the same 10% rate of success in Latests as we have in the Purple Reign tokens. I just really want both 5trange and Thano5 - I do have a larger hoard (286 pulls), so my chances of getting both maxed is higher. If you just want Thano5, I'd definitely pull from the PR tokens. If you want a shot at 5trange, I'd probably hoard until the next 5* replaces Widow and hopefully you'll have enough pulls that you'll be able to cover all 3 (5trange, Thano5, and the next 5*).

    I think chasing Classics is a fool's errand at this point if you want to have usable 5*s and you don't already have most of the 5*s in Classics champed or near-champed. I'd rather have a better shot at having a usable 5* from the Latests than a bunch of random 5* covers. I'm done w/ Classics unless they fix the dilution problem. If they don't, then I guess I'm counting on them finally making 5*s available as rewards in SCL9 or SCL10 (or SCL11, ha).
  • PongiePongie Posts: 1,326 Chairperson of the Boards
    Thought long and hard and I'm going to continue my hoard. As strong as he may be, I don't think I want to be locked into thanos with my oml. After playing against him in the clashes, thanos is much like 2* storm where you have to take him down first. His purple also shuts down teammates and direct damage abilities can still be fired (for some reason I read it as all abilities being locked out). Oml is slow enough, adding thanos (who appears to be just as slow) isn't going to help. I'll stick with boosted 4*s for now.

    Good luck to everyone pulling thanos in the latest tokens.
  • AlkyoneusAlkyoneus Age Unconfirmed Posts: 116 Tile Toppler
    This topic is very relevant to my interests. I've made a pact with myself that I'm going to stop pulling everything starting on January 1st as a New Years' resolution to myself, in the interest of moving solidly into 5-star land with Latest Legends. 8 months of playing isn't terribly out of the question, and I can save every single token I earn until then and have a huge opening party when the time comes!

    Definitely worth thinking about.
  • blargrxblargrx Posts: 150 Tile Toppler
    Alkyoneus wrote:
    This topic is very relevant to my interests. I've made a pact with myself that I'm going to stop pulling everything starting on January 1st as a New Years' resolution to myself, in the interest of moving solidly into 5-star land with Latest Legends. 8 months of playing isn't terribly out of the question, and I can save every single token I earn until then and have a huge opening party when the time comes!

    Definitely worth thinking about.

    good luck! I've been saving for ~6 months already and at the rate i'm going, i'm anticipating another 6-8 months until my goal. I would suggest opening event tokens periodically (i usually do sometime in the pvp off season) as the extra covers usually yield extra CP and ISO making your goal come a little faster
  • AlkyoneusAlkyoneus Age Unconfirmed Posts: 116 Tile Toppler
    good luck! I've been saving for ~6 months already and at the rate i'm going, i'm anticipating another 6-8 months until my goal. I would suggest opening event tokens periodically (i usually do sometime in the pvp off season) as the extra covers usually yield extra CP and ISO making your goal come a little faster

    That's awesome! I've decided to do this. I've got a couple of people in my alliance who are also on board. The rate at which we pull classic covers is sad, and to top it off you inevitably end up at 5 covers in a specific color and have to sell off 5-star pulls (I just did this with a GG yellow, that was the straw that broke the camel's back so to speak).

    I crunched the numbers and came up with this as a plan:
    270 days of saving (~9 months)
    108 pvp events x 25cp = 2,700cp
    11 pvp season x 25cp alliance rewards = 275cp
    270 days of story nodes x 2CP = 540cp
    38 weeks of story events x 1.5 events/week x 25cp = 1,425cp (this might be low, it's hard to calculate events)
    Total cp: 4,940
    197 Latest Legends draws


    54 Crash of the Titans events
    12 champion 4-stars
    Total Legendary Tokens: 66

    I'm not including misc cp rewards from daily login, VIP, champ rewards because that's intangible and you can't really get specific numbers without a lot more work. Safe to say that 270 days of saving is a safe bet to get yourself 265 draws, which is 95% certain to get 39 5-star draws. This number goes down with the champ farm and potential rewards from special events, random alliance purchases, and Legendary Tokens from levels 280, 290, 300, etc from 4-stars. I'm going to check in monthly with totals so others can see my progress. I'd love to see other people trying this as I think it's the best way for non-whale players to seriously improve their rosters with a little patience!
  • AlkyoneusAlkyoneus Age Unconfirmed Posts: 116 Tile Toppler
    Also, question to whales: I was thinking of another way to speed up getting Legendary Tokens through Heroic 40-packs at 11,200 imcoin.png - I've champed every 3 star.png and 20 4 star.png and I have a 2 star.png farm running full time right now, so this seems like a good way to get the free token plus more cp through cover rewards. I'm currently imcoin.png positive through daily rewards and VIP, so again this seems like just a "matter of time" type of thing.

    Does this sound like a good idea or no?
  • NepentheNepenthe Age Unconfirmed Posts: 283 Mover and Shaker
    I've been saving LTs and CP since shortly after Dr Strange was released, with the aim of cashing them all in when Strange was the oldest 5* in latest legends. I'm currently at 24 LTs and 709 CP, so 52 draws. I got one Thano5 from Purple Reign (still love that), but no Stranges from his event tokens. Hoping the next 5* is also a good one, and that I'll have over 100 draws by then (plus 4* champ rewards once I start pulling).
  • brollbroll Posts: 4,727 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited December 2016
    Nepenthe wrote:
    I've been saving LTs and CP since shortly after Dr Strange was released, with the aim of cashing them all in when Strange was the oldest 5* in latest legends. I'm currently at 24 LTs and 709 CP, so 52 draws. I got one Thano5 from Purple Reign (still love that), but no Stranges from his event tokens. Hoping the next 5* is also a good one, and that I'll have over 100 draws by then (plus 4* champ rewards once I start pulling).

    I'm in about the same boat. I don't remember exactly when I started, somewhere in October and I have 23 LTs and 936 CP so 60 draws. I don't expect I'll have enough to max cover, but might get enough to be usable. Trying to weigh vs cashing the CP on classics instead to get the 9 & growing additional covers. As someone who's just starting the 4* transition it might be worth more to get the 9 extra covers. The fact that Thanos kinda seems like a turd is making that more likely. On the other hand Purple Reign was generous to me and my Thanos already has 3 covers for better or worse. If the next 5* isn't overly impressive I'll probably just do Classics and keep hoarding LTs for a future pull.
  • FightmastermpqFightmastermpq Age Unconfirmed Posts: 995 Critical Contributor
    Alkyoneus wrote:
    Also, question to whales: I was thinking of another way to speed up getting Legendary Tokens through Heroic 40-packs at 11,200 imcoin.png - I've champed every 3 star.png and 20 4 star.png and I have a 2 star.png farm running full time right now, so this seems like a good way to get the free token plus more cp through cover rewards. I'm currently imcoin.png positive through daily rewards and VIP, so again this seems like just a "matter of time" type of thing.

    Does this sound like a good idea or no?
    Wait til off season when they drop to 10k.

    Vaults aren't a bad option either as they are 9800 for half the vault plus some known 4*s and other goodies. Definitely take advantage of the Naughty or Nice vault while you can. I reset that one several times.
  • bbiglerbbigler Posts: 1,400 Chairperson of the Boards
    Can you run the stats for max covering 3 x 5*s instead? I think that's most people's goal anyway and more efficient use of LT/CP. I figure it this way:

    300 Pulls (15% chance) => 45 x 5* covers => 13 - 17 covers per 5* (one 5* may not be fully covered, so...)

    Use remaining 255 x 4* covers to get champ rewards (80% champed): approx. 20 LTs + 150 CP = 26 Pulls => 3 x 5* covers

    If that still doesn't work to fully cover 3 x 5*, then I would just save up and purchase the missing cover for 720 CP.

    300 Pulls could be:
    100 LTs and 5000 CP
    150 LTs and 3750 CP
    200 LTs and 2500 CP
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