Heroic Tokens

MadScientistMadScientist Posts: 116 Tile Toppler
edited September 2016 in Theories and Statistics
What is the probability that you get a 2 star.png, 3 star.png or 4 star.png cover from a heroic token? The in-game description gives a chance of 0.2% chance to get one of 35 4 star.png covers, a chance of 0.6% to get one of 40 3 star.png covers and a chance of 5.4% to get one of 13 2 star.png covers. Simply adding these numbers you get a chance of 70.2%+24%+7%=101.4% to get any cover which is clearly wrong and indicates that the numbers are rounded.
If we assume that the numbers are rounded to one decimal after the comma, we get that the chance to get a 2 star.png cover is in the interval [69.55, 70.85), the chance to get a 3 star.png cover is in the interval [22, 26) and the chance to get a 4 star.png cover is in the interval [5.25, 8.75). If we assume even numbers, the probabilities could be (70%, 22%, 8%), (70%, 23%, 7%) or (70%, 24%, 6%). Does anyone know the real numbers?
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