I'm in the top 1%!

HaywireII

I just opened my 29th legendary token in a row without a 5* cover showing up, all at the new 15% draw rate. If I'm doing my math right the chances of opening 29 in a row without getting a 5* are 0.8977%. I think I saw someone else post that they got to the mid 30's. Anyone else have a long dry spell with the new odds?

When the new tokens odds went live 3 of my first 6 tokens gave me 5* covers. Now I'm at 3 out of 35. When the odds swing back in my favor and I go from my 8.5% pull rate to the 15% it should be exciting. That's going to happen, right?

Edit/Update: Since the thread got reopened I took the time to put together a computer simulation of how many tokens would need to be opened to get a 5* cover at a 15% pull rate and ran it 100,000 times. The most it took was 74 pulls. If anyone can beat that in real life they win the MPQ bad luck lottery. Results are below:

1	150094
2	127407
3	108379
4	91930
5	78201
6	66523
7	56406
8	48153
9	41053
10	34691
11	29505
12	25074
13	21169
14	18263
15	15676
16	13084
17	11064
18	9547
19	8101
20	6929
21	5842
22	4972
23	4184
24	3625
25	2992
26	2591
27	2239
28	1856
29	1570
30	1318
31	1119
32	891
33	847
34	708
35	640
36	499
37	436
38	368
39	305
40	266
41	256
42	200
43	173
44	141
45	101
46	112
47	83
48	57
49	60
50	49
51	37
52	38
53	24
54	17
55	15
56	30
57	12
58	14
59	13
60	8
61	6
62	8
63	8
64	4
65	1
66	2
67	4
68	4
70	3
71	1
73	1
74	1

amusingfoo1

I went 0/40 and 1/50 (not overlapping runs) in the 10% time. No fun then, either. Sorry to hear it.

wymtime

I am around 300 CP without a 5* so 15 or 16 because my clash didn't get me one either

HaywireII

I was thinking of programming a quick computer model and run a few thousand iterations and see what the distribution is like for how many pulls it takes to get a 5*. It's been about 20 years since I took a statistics class though so not sure I'd do a good job of presenting the results.

I'm sure my luck will turn around at some point but at this point it's almost a challenge to see how far I can go before the streak breaks. Of course I'd trade it all in for a single OML yellow cover to reduce my daily health pack consumption.

simonsez

HaywireII wrote:

Anyone else have a long dry spell with the new odds?

32 and counting. 57 since getting a phx or oml.

Malcrof

Please use the worst day (linked below) or one of the multitudes of token threads for things like this, locking this one.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=30058

Vhailorx

Topic. Seems like a total waste of moderator time.

JVReal

because it turned into a duplicate of the other fifty billion threads about 5* draw rates.

Vhailorx

So let it starve to death like every other duplicative thread in internet message board history. It's not like this board is swarming with traffic these days.

HaywireII

I'll say in my defense that it wasn't a "worst day" moment or it wasn't intended that way. I thought there was a thread somewhere about people checking the new draw rates and what they are getting but I went back several weeks worth of posts and didn't see it. I just wanted people to share their experiences and maybe get someone good at math to comment on the odds. Not getting any 5* covers isn't a good thing but I didn't start that as a complaint or a "woe is me" thread. Random is random and we all live with it.

Edit: I assume the moderators aren't getting paid for this and just have to use their best judgement. If they think something isn't appropriate placed they move it or lock it as needed. I'm not bothered too much that my thread was seen as redundant but I thought it could have been an interesting conversation on math and odds. Regardless of how long my 4* streak runs life goes on.

simonsez

HaywireII wrote:

I'll say in my defense that it wasn't a "worst day" moment or it wasn't intended that way.

Especially if you didn't pull all those tokens in one day. Maybe we need a "worst month" thread.

HaywireII

I'm just championing my first 4* now so it's not even like it's a horrible thing that I'm not getting the covers. Only two of the covers had to be sold and those made it to the worst day thread. I am slowly and steadily building my 4* characters (emphasis on slowly) and was just boggled by the long streak and wanted to do some math.

mpqr7

It's not just "having a bad day". It's pretty frustrating how hard it is to truly progress in this game. That's why I'm spending more and more time on other games instead. I haven't pulled a new oml token in over 6 months, and it's not from a lack of trying. And my other 5*s aren't very useful either, as they either have too few covers or are not yet with all three colors.

I'm doing okay, not great. Hopefully in another few years, I'll get somewhere...

5*s Covers
OML 5..1..4
JG 0..2..5
SS 3..1..1
BSS 1..3..0
IM 2..0..1
Cap 1..1..1
GG 0..0..1
BB 0..0..0

Vhailorx

mpqr7 wrote:

It's not just "having a bad day". It's pretty frustrating how hard it is to truly progress in this game. That's why I'm spending more and more time on other games instead. I haven't pulled a new oml token in over 6 months, and it's not from a lack of trying. And my other 5*s aren't very useful either, as they either have too few covers or are not yet with all three colors.

I'm doing okay, not great. Hopefully in another few years, I'll get somewhere...

5*s Covers
OML 5..1..4
JG 0..2..5
SS 3..1..1
BSS 1..3..0
IM 2..0..1
Cap 1..1..1
GG 0..0..1
BB 0..0..0

*sigh* your 'not great progress' list of 5*s just makes me sad about my pathetic 5* bench.

But I dont this thread to get locked because ware griping about 5* drop rates. So let's remember to keep on topic and gripe about the moderators instead!

so: the tyranny of excessive moderation on this forum has to stop! Free haywirell!

JVReal

mpqr7 wrote:

It's not just "having a bad day". It's pretty frustrating how hard it is to truly progress in this game. That's why I'm spending more and more time on other games instead. I haven't pulled a new oml token in over 6 months, and it's not from a lack of trying. And my other 5*s aren't very useful either, as they either have too few covers or are not yet with all three colors.

I'm doing okay, not great. Hopefully in another few years, I'll get somewhere...

5*s Covers
OML 5..1..4
JG 0..2..5
SS 3..1..1
BSS 1..3..0
IM 2..0..1
Cap 1..1..1
GG 0..0..1
BB 0..0..0

Yeah, mine aren't usable either, but I've only got 4 of my 4* champed, so it's not a bad thing, and it is getting me ready slowly for the 5* meta about a year and a half from now.

My 5*:
OML 1/3/0
IMXtraLarge6 1/0/2
PHX 0/1/2
GG 1/0/0
SS 0/1/0
BSS 0/1/1

I'm bummed when I pull an LT and don't get a 5*, but at the same time I'm more hoping for a 4* cover to not be a dupe that I can't use than for it to be a 5*. I'm at the point that I probably won't pull anymore LT's until I have maxed all my cover maxed 4's to make most of my duplicate covers I will pull useable... but then there's always the 4* covers that I can't max but can't use... like Iceman pulling another Blue when he's 3/5/0.

Vhailorx wrote:

So let it starve to death like every other duplicative thread in internet message board history. It's not like this board is swarming with traffic these days.

I hear you, I figure he was on the forums, saw it was heading to duplicate territory and locked it so it wouldn't clog the front page and have 2 of them lingering. Especially on slow days, people tend to comment on multiple threads to try to stimulate conversation... not that it's a bad thing... where was I going with this?

thisone

Because the mods operate on rng as well.

TxMoose

while I completely understand the frustration of some regarding the general negativity on here, asking negative threads to be posted in the worst moment thread and never asking any positive threads to be posted in best moment thread seems double-standardish. not allowing forum user to vent frustration anywhere except the worst moment thread is a bad look.

MojoWild

One time I questioned why a thread was locked and had that post removed and was given a warning.
Good luck!

simonsez

MojoWild wrote:

One time I questioned why a thread was locked and had that post removed and was given a warning.
Good luck!

I'll give 5 retreats in the next PvP to whomever posts a thread asking why this one got locked.

fight4thedream

Unlocked and merged "I'm in the top 1%!" and "what was the point of locking the "i'm in the 1%" thread" as a token of good faith. While I understand my fellow moderator's reasoning for locking the thread, there are existing threads about token pull percentages, HaywireII makes a compelling case in his/her defense and having reviewed the original thread I feel the OP is oriented in a neutral manner (with a pinch of sarcasm at the end) regarding token pull percentages.

Obviously, considering the frustration involved with token pulls the issue has the potential to grow toxic but I prefer a moderation method that deals with such issues as they come rather than preemptively cutting the conversation short. I am sure for some such threads as this are akin to beating a dead horse but I ask if you feel that way to just skip over the thread.

This is a forum, after all, and the purpose of a forum is to discuss ideas, information and experiences in a civil manner freely. As I have stated in the past, a moderator's duty is not simply to enforce the rules and general maintenance of the forums but also to help ensure that users feel comfortable expressing themselves and to facilitate the exchange of ideas. If you disagree with the actions of a moderator, you are always free to contact the moderator in question first. If you feel the moderator is being unreasonable or haven't received a response, you can then contact another moderator to intercede and have the issue brought forth to the council of moderation where we discuss and decide the best course of action. And of course, if you don't feel comfortable discussing the issue with a moderator you can also contact Hi-Fi in regards to the matter.

I will ask, however, that you refrain from starting threads questioning a mod's decision. These sorts of threads are obviously not game-related and tend to incite mod bashing which can be grounds for warnings and/or bannings. We do the best that we can to ensure fair moderation but as we are different people and access the forums at different times, we can't always review and decide moderation actions together. So yes at times it might seem like we are moderating arbitrarily and for that you have our apologies. We are not perfect and there are limits to what we are able to do. If you feel that you have been treated unfairly, however, there are avenues available for you to seek recourse.

Also if you believe a post is inappropriate, we appreciate it if you would send a report to notify us about the matter and not to engage the problem post. Unfortunately, we can't check every thread all the time but this helps us greatly.

So in the future, if you feel you have been treated unfairly or there is an inappropriate post in need of moderation, please do not hesitate to get in touch with a moderator or Hi-Fi. Thank you!

And now back to your regular scheduled programming. (aka Please keep this thread on topic. Thanks!)

Linkster79

I pulled my first 5* an Old Man Logan black cover with my 12th legendary token and then on my next 91 tokens pulled all 4*, I gave up playing not long after as I couldn't see any way to progress any further. Does this make me a top 1% too?

On a brighter more positive note I have now been able to go outside loads to catch Digimon on my phone