So you're thinking...where's my 5 stars?!!

wirius

A frequent post on the forums seems to be people opening up "Tons of LT's", and wondering at the lack of OML and questioning game hacks.

https://www.inverse.com/article/6339-wh ... robability

A light read. Just skim it if you want. One of the points of the article however is we don't intuitively understand probability. We think we do, but we don't. If you would like a semi quick way of understanding the real odds of you getting 13 OML covers, I have a little experiment for you. Might not even take you five minutes.

https://www.wizards.com/dnd/dice/dice.htm

So first, we know that each token has a 10% chance of being a 5*. There's a dice roller on there called a d10, which has ten numbers. We're going to make this simple. Start rolling that d10 and count the number of times until "1" pops up. Each 1 is a five star.

Now we'll assume that there are 3 different 4*'s in a token. So IF you get a one, you have a 1/3 chance of getting an OML. Roll the d6. If you get a 1-2, congrats! You got an OML!

There are of course 3 different colors of OML. When you win an OML cover, roll the d6 again. If you get 5-6, its red, 3-4, its black, 1-2, a precious yellow cover.

Check it out. If you want, post your results below. How many times do you have to roll that D10 and d6 before you get an OML cover? How many times until you got a yellow? How many to max him out? This will give you a greater intuitive sense of the randomness and hopefully make you fell like you're not so cheated.