So you're thinking...where's my 5 stars?!!

wiriuswirius Age Unconfirmed Posts: 667
edited November 2016 in Theories and Statistics
A frequent post on the forums seems to be people opening up "Tons of LT's", and wondering at the lack of OML and questioning game hacks.

https://www.inverse.com/article/6339-wh ... robability

A light read. Just skim it if you want. One of the points of the article however is we don't intuitively understand probability. We think we do, but we don't. If you would like a semi quick way of understanding the real odds of you getting 13 OML covers, I have a little experiment for you. Might not even take you five minutes.

https://www.wizards.com/dnd/dice/dice.htm

So first, we know that each token has a 10% chance of being a 5*. There's a dice roller on there called a d10, which has ten numbers. We're going to make this simple. Start rolling that d10 and count the number of times until "1" pops up. Each 1 is a five star.

Now we'll assume that there are 3 different 4*'s in a token. So IF you get a one, you have a 1/3 chance of getting an OML. Roll the d6. If you get a 1-2, congrats! You got an OML!

There are of course 3 different colors of OML. When you win an OML cover, roll the d6 again. If you get 5-6, its red, 3-4, its black, 1-2, a precious yellow cover.

Check it out. If you want, post your results below. How many times do you have to roll that D10 and d6 before you get an OML cover? How many times until you got a yellow? How many to max him out? This will give you a greater intuitive sense of the randomness and hopefully make you fell like you're not so cheated.
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Comments

  • Dragon_NexusDragon_Nexus Posts: 3,701 Chairperson of the Boards
    I think most of us understand the probability.
    The issue people have is that the best tier in the game shouldn't be down to completely random chance at all, meaning people with 2* rosters have 7 or more covers for their OML while me with my roster of all championed 3*s and gradually levelling 4*s doesn't even have one yet. Not due to me not working as hard as them, but simply due to me not being lucky.
  • wiriuswirius Age Unconfirmed Posts: 667
    edited April 2016
    All good Dragon. If you understand the odds, that's fine. The post was intended for those who don't seem to. I understand you might have some grumblings at the fact top tier is purely through odds, but odds are compelling to us. If you were truly disatisfied, you would stop playing the game. But the chance...just the chance that you pull those 5*'s and dominate keeps you and many going. As such, while its not "fair", its a very successful move on their end.

    Its the reason they stopped giving a 100% chance of a 4* cover in the 10 packs. People will spend more at the chance of getting the reward, then they will if they get the reward without risk. I'm sure its the reason they stopped individual cover buys too. People will spend more money in the vaults trying to get the 4* cover then they would if they could straight up buy it.

    I don't begrudge them for this. They've got to pay the bills, and quite frankly, most of the impactful randomness lies on the extreme end of the game and increases the chance vets still invest in the game. Its just important that people understand the devs aren't scamming you. They clearly tell you the odds, this just helps you understand by experience.
  • revskiprevskip Age Unconfirmed Posts: 696 Critical Contributor
    I think most of us understand the probability.
    The issue people have is that the best tier in the game shouldn't be down to completely random chance at all, meaning people with 2* rosters have 7 or more covers for their OML while me with my roster of all championed 3*s and gradually levelling 4*s doesn't even have one yet. Not due to me not working as hard as them, but simply due to me not being lucky.

    I get that point of view.

    However without a random drop of OML (and all the other 5*s) the new players would never have a snowball's chance in hell of keeping up with people who are further along for no other reason than they discovered the game earlier. The players who keep the game moving (ie the much maligned whales) spend money that will eventually unlock those covers if enough is thrown at it.

    The free to play crowd has vastly different ideas on whether the vets who have supported the game (although not thrown $$$ in the pot) should be ahead of the new players in the quest to achieve the characters that define the new meta. This is true for a lot of games tbh.

    I prefer a system that has some randomness inherent in it so that occasionally at least some of the new players can luck into getting a leg up. The fact that the game punishes new rosters in PVE while giving a jump on PVP with the 5* characters seems like a decent trade off. I can definitely understand the other side of that argument though, people who have been playing for 2 years or more did help the developers get to the point that they are at and even if they never paid a penny into the game allowed for the game to grow and in turn bring in more whales. Hard to juggle the needs of both groups and in all honesty if I was the devs I would be catering far more to the people who are paying the biggest money into the game.
  • MaxxPowerzMaxxPowerz Age Unconfirmed Posts: 276 Mover and Shaker
    With all of the new 4* being introduced, are people still that desperate for 5* covers that it is their only motivation for playing? I'm really looking forward to covering some of these new characters, I would almost rather pull those from my tokens than a 5*. Is competition so stiff in the PVP ranks these days?
  • FierceKiwiFierceKiwi Age Unconfirmed Posts: 505 Critical Contributor
    When you have all the important 4* covered and 5* are comically broken. Yes they do become the only reason to play...or a very good reason to stop playing.
  • carrion_pigeonscarrion_pigeons Age Unconfirmed Posts: 942 Critical Contributor
    wirius wrote:
    If you were truly disatisfied, you would stop playing the game.

    That's really where it all falls down though, isn't it? It's very easy to be dissatisfied and not quit. In actual fact, the entire game runs on the backs of people who are dissatisfied but still play. The people who are satisfied are the people who don't pay.
  • wiriuswirius Age Unconfirmed Posts: 667
    wirius wrote:
    If you were truly disatisfied, you would stop playing the game.

    That's really where it all falls down though, isn't it? It's very easy to be dissatisfied and not quit. In actual fact, the entire game runs on the backs of people who are dissatisfied but still play. The people who are satisfied are the people who don't pay.

    Really? When I'm dissatisfied I quit. Why would I play a game I'm not happy with? There are thousands of games out there. No, if you're paying, you're telling them you delight in their game so much that you are willing to part with your hard earned money. When gamers aren't happy they leave and stop paying. Gamers ALWAYS whine and will never be happy. If you're buying and playing the game, whether you want to admit it or not, you are satisfied with the product from a businesses standpoint.
  • Jack0fAllGamesJack0fAllGames Age Unconfirmed Posts: 65 Match Maker
    wirius wrote:
    wirius wrote:
    If you were truly disatisfied, you would stop playing the game.

    That's really where it all falls down though, isn't it? It's very easy to be dissatisfied and not quit. In actual fact, the entire game runs on the backs of people who are dissatisfied but still play. The people who are satisfied are the people who don't pay.

    Really? When I'm dissatisfied I quit. Why would I play a game I'm not happy with? There are thousands of games out there. No, if you're paying, you're telling them you delight in their game so much that you are willing to part with your hard earned money. When gamers aren't happy they leave and stop paying. Gamers ALWAYS whine and will never be happy. If you're buying and playing the game, whether you want to admit it or not, you are satisfied with the product from a businesses standpoint.

    Freemium games don't generate income from the same player motivations as games you buy outright and then maybe purchase extras for.
  • HeartburnHeartburn Age Unconfirmed Posts: 527
    revskip wrote:

    I get that point of view.

    However without a random drop of OML (and all the other 5*s) the new players would never have a snowball's chance in hell of keeping up with people who are further along for no other reason than they discovered the game earlier. The players who keep the game moving (ie the much maligned whales) spend money that will eventually unlock those covers if enough is thrown at it.

    The free to play crowd has vastly different ideas on whether the vets who have supported the game (although not thrown $$$ in the pot) should be ahead of the new players in the quest to achieve the characters that define the new meta. This is true for a lot of games tbh.

    I prefer a system that has some randomness inherent in it so that occasionally at least some of the new players can luck into getting a leg up. The fact that the game punishes new rosters in PVE while giving a jump on PVP with the 5* characters seems like a decent trade off. I can definitely understand the other side of that argument though, people who have been playing for 2 years or more did help the developers get to the point that they are at and even if they never paid a penny into the game allowed for the game to grow and in turn bring in more whales. Hard to juggle the needs of both groups and in all honesty if I was the devs I would be catering far more to the people who are paying the biggest money into the game.
    new players getting end game content just cause they are lucky is just poor game designed. you want players to gradually and steadily get to the next tier. This game does that fairly well up to 3* except for it giving out CPs and LTs where they are winning too valuable rewards too early, due to baby brackets in PVE or scaling advantage. This game falls apart after 3* as 4* are not given out as rewards as much as it is needed.

    to remedy this a tier system with appropriate rewards for each transition step maybe with a gate requiring specific star.png rated heroes to play area(at least a team of 3). i would make it a one shot and done ending in a puzzle challenge level, but you can play all areas you qualify for for more iso, cp, and cover rewards using those specific tiered characters. and i would make a daily event where you can win one of each color for a specific 3*, a weekly event (maybe weekend) to win 1 of each color of a specific 4* hero and a monthly where you can win a 5* of your choice (barring any 5* released that month, maybe not sure) each that can only be played with the tier below.

    pvp i would revamp the placement rewards so that they are in line with the meta offering 1st and second a specific cover of a 5*. i would also make points team based versus it current form of ranked based, so points are static and difficulty based. it would be a combo of star.png rank, covers, and level. In addition, i would add winning streaks that give iso multipliers that cap up to 4x and participation awards of set amounts of iso every 5 matches(up to 25 matches), 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000.

    more interesting events, hydra Attacks where the alliance is pit against each other where they play rounds of nodes for good rewards with a fairly decent chance to get perfect points. player points are all displayed and it displays total points of the 5 random members of hydra in alliance and alliance votes each round to reveal the status of 2 individuals ( if hydra found they are eliminated) and hydra has an additional vote to knock out one alliance member from participating. 5 or 6 rounds long (or less with smaller alliances) played with increasing rewards in point nodes with hard difficulties so only higher rosters can still get perfect. if all hydra agents not found hydra wins, if not shield members gets set of rewards. if hydra wins those rewards are 5 split between them and each can distribute their share of rewards to themselves or alliance members as they see fit. with maybe a few extra premium rewards alliance can vote on for each at events end, like most devious, best detective, best moment. not sure if hydra members get to know who each other are in case there is one bad egg.( if votes tie one of members in the tie is randomly picked)

    events where you release 2 characters and you can only win one of them without luck but you pick who, maybe like a civil war event.

    they really should be encouraging players to play their game instead of starving them in order to get purchases.
  • ammenellammenell Posts: 711 Critical Contributor
    wirius wrote:
    wirius wrote:
    If you were truly disatisfied, you would stop playing the game.

    That's really where it all falls down though, isn't it? It's very easy to be dissatisfied and not quit. In actual fact, the entire game runs on the backs of people who are dissatisfied but still play. The people who are satisfied are the people who don't pay.

    Really? When I'm dissatisfied I quit. Why would I play a game I'm not happy with? There are thousands of games out there. No, if you're paying, you're telling them you delight in their game so much that you are willing to part with your hard earned money. When gamers aren't happy they leave and stop paying. Gamers ALWAYS whine and will never be happy. If you're buying and playing the game, whether you want to admit it or not, you are satisfied with the product from a businesses standpoint.
    what games do you play? you never played a game, lost, got angry, threw your controller against the wall and still played that game half an hour later?
    no? but you are talking about gaming? icon_lol.gif
  • Redrobot30Redrobot30 Age Unconfirmed Posts: 348 Mover and Shaker
    5*s?!? When did they put 5* characters in the game? It's so rare to pull even one I forgot they even existed.... icon_rolleyes.gif
  • wiriuswirius Age Unconfirmed Posts: 667
    ammenell wrote:
    what games do you play? you never played a game, lost, got angry, threw your controller against the wall and still played that game half an hour later?
    no? but you are talking about gaming? icon_lol.gif

    Heh, I've played countless games, but I typically love controller breaking games. I've beaten some of the hardest games out there, Devil May Cry 3 original and Ninja Gaiden black on their hardest difficulties. Of COURSE when I die I might curse, but I'm still enjoying myself. I also played **** hard games that just aren't fun. I don't play them. If people really didn't enjoy the RNG system, they would quit paying or playing. They haven't, and probably are spending and playing even more. If they truly don't like the game and are playing and playing regardless, I would question their agency as a human being. =P I mean what do you think the developers think, "Wow, people are playing hours a day and paying us even more money. Our game must be terrible. Lets change what we're doing so people play and pay less!"
  • simonsezsimonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    wirius wrote:
    Why would I play a game I'm not happy with?
    I'm thinking sunk-cost fallacy and stockholm syndrome...
  • firethornefirethorne Posts: 1,497 Chairperson of the Boards
    simonsez wrote:
    wirius wrote:
    Why would I play a game I'm not happy with?
    I'm thinking sunk-cost fallacy and stockholm syndrome...

    And, of course, the impression that the game intentionally puts out that paying makes it better. Lose a match? It kindly suggests you buy some ISO or new characters to make your team stronger, implying more wins (while remaining conveniently quiet about the whole system where it you level your characters, the enemies level right along with you).
  • Jack0fAllGamesJack0fAllGames Age Unconfirmed Posts: 65 Match Maker
    Apparently it's not possible to enjoy a game overall while still being frustrated by certain parts of it.
  • carrion_pigeonscarrion_pigeons Age Unconfirmed Posts: 942 Critical Contributor
    wirius wrote:
    ammenell wrote:
    what games do you play? you never played a game, lost, got angry, threw your controller against the wall and still played that game half an hour later?
    no? but you are talking about gaming? icon_lol.gif

    Heh, I've played countless games, but I typically love controller breaking games. I've beaten some of the hardest games out there, Devil May Cry 3 original and Ninja Gaiden black on their hardest difficulties. Of COURSE when I die I might curse, but I'm still enjoying myself. I also played **** hard games that just aren't fun. I don't play them. If people really didn't enjoy the RNG system, they would quit paying or playing. They haven't, and probably are spending and playing even more. If they truly don't like the game and are playing and playing regardless, I would question their agency as a human being. =P I mean what do you think the developers think, "Wow, people are playing hours a day and paying us even more money. Our game must be terrible. Lets change what we're doing so people play and pay less!"

    I can like aspects of a game and still think it's poorly implemented. I enjoy the match-3 gameplay and the abilities of MPQ and still despise the progression aspects, for example. I keep coming back to the game because I keep looking for the enjoyable moments that are, in fact, there, and I keep quitting after a few minutes because I get so disgusted with all the manipulative nonsense going on with the "buy more buy more buy more" stridency of the game. As a result, I have spent far less on this game than I likely would have if the game offered more opportunity to pick and choose how I want to play without opportunistically making me pay through the nose for every little tiny thing.

    Does that make me sound like a satisfied customer? I am, after all, still playing. Instead of quitting, I express my dissatisfaction by refusing to participate in a paywall structure, where another structure probably would have given me reason to pay into it. Is that unreasonable?
  • mpqr7mpqr7 Posts: 2,642 Chairperson of the Boards
    At this point, I'm slowly farming ISO in order to champion a 4* approximately once per month. And level up each 4* well enough to win each ddq crash of the titans. I'd love to win 5*s more often, but I'm emotionally prepared to not win any except I don't know once every 100 LT/CP draws or something? And then I'll be very unhappy.

    So it's repetitive, but it's fine.
  • ammenellammenell Posts: 711 Critical Contributor
    wirius wrote:
    ammenell wrote:
    what games do you play? you never played a game, lost, got angry, threw your controller against the wall and still played that game half an hour later?
    no? but you are talking about gaming? icon_lol.gif

    Heh, I've played countless games, but I typically love controller breaking games. I've beaten some of the hardest games out there, Devil May Cry 3 original and Ninja Gaiden black on their hardest difficulties. Of COURSE when I die I might curse, but I'm still enjoying myself. I also played **** hard games that just aren't fun. I don't play them. If people really didn't enjoy the RNG system, they would quit paying or playing. They haven't, and probably are spending and playing even more. If they truly don't like the game and are playing and playing regardless, I would question their agency as a human being. =P I mean what do you think the developers think, "Wow, people are playing hours a day and paying us even more money. Our game must be terrible. Lets change what we're doing so people play and pay less!"
    one very simple answer comes to mind - people still have to poop...
  • wiriuswirius Age Unconfirmed Posts: 667
    edited April 2016

    I can like aspects of a game and still think it's poorly implemented. I enjoy the match-3 gameplay and the abilities of MPQ and still despise the progression aspects, for example. I keep coming back to the game because I keep looking for the enjoyable moments that are, in fact, there, and I keep quitting after a few minutes because I get so disgusted with all the manipulative nonsense going on with the "buy more buy more buy more" stridency of the game. As a result, I have spent far less on this game than I likely would have if the game offered more opportunity to pick and choose how I want to play without opportunistically making me pay through the nose for every little tiny thing.

    Does that make me sound like a satisfied customer? I am, after all, still playing. Instead of quitting, I express my dissatisfaction by refusing to participate in a paywall structure, where another structure probably would have given me reason to pay into it. Is that unreasonable?

    Not unreasonable at all. For example, I don't find the effort versus reward of PvE fun, so I don't play it. I also don't find it a great fun-to-effort ratio to grind out CP or push to 1300 in pvp. I do play DDQ a lot. That's all in their metrics. If for example, lots of people stopped playing PvE, they would look at upping the rewards to get people to play again. If people stopped pushing for LT's, they would relook at the system and adjust the reward payout to entice people to do so. If they aren't changing the system, then you can be sure its probably doing just fine.
  • OneLastGambitOneLastGambit Age Unconfirmed Posts: 1,963 Chairperson of the Boards
    I think the mistake you made in this post wirius (one I've made myself) is you've read the comlaint wrong.

    You've read it as..."I should've got a 5* by now...this is not random"

    When in fact the complaint is "why are 5* only rewarded randomly ?"


    Most people on this forum understand odds.

    What they don't understand is what they want. They believe they want to be able to earn 5* covers without realising that the minute they are earnable they will never be able to earn them since the same top end players will earn all the best prizes which earn them now.

    In the RNG system, infuriating that it is, anyone can get them. I'd go farther to assert that the people complaining about the rng are often top end players who would prefer nobody but top end players be able to get them thus maintaining the current status quo.
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